Elections in South Africa could lead to the biggest political shift since 1994

Cape Town, South Africa (AFP) – South Africa Voting will take place on Wednesday To decide whether their country would take its most important political step since then The moment 30 years ago When apartheid was overthrown and democracy was achieved.

These national elections will not be as momentous as the ones South Africa held in 1994 – and only a few were. Then Nelson Mandela led African National Congress The party won as black South Africans who were in the majority were allowed to vote for the first time. It officially ended half a century of racial segregation under apartheid — a violently imposed system that attracted global outrage — and hundreds of years of white minority rule.

But while the ANC is still in power in 2024, it is Amid growing discontent This is largely due to high levels of unemployment and poverty. This could lead to a majority of South African citizens Choose another party This week on the week that led them to freedom.

“Thirty years of democracy in South Africa does not mean we have to endure eternity under the ANC,” John Steenhausen, leader of the main opposition Democratic Alliance party, said in the run-up to the election.

However, any change is not expected to be sweeping.

The potential fallout is complicated because while many opinion polls put the ANC’s support at less than 50%, suggesting it is in danger of losing its majority for the first time. No opposition party stepped up To a position to overcome. The ANC is still widely expected to be the largest party, far ahead of a growing number of opposition movements that split the disaffected vote.

But without an outright majority, the ANC will likely have to make pacts or alliances with others to remain in government and be re-elected. President Cyril Ramaphosa. This would end its political dominance over Post-apartheid South Africa It heralds a new era, in which the ANC participates in governance.

The ANC has won six consecutive national elections, beginning with the one that made Mandela the first black president in 1994. But after receiving nearly 70% of the vote twenty years earlier, it has seen Steady decline in support While South Africa grapples with profound social and economic problems, some of which are legacies of the apartheid system.

The ANC has also been criticized for Corruption scandals that rocked it And not responding The problem of violent crimes in the country. There was an average of 83 homicides per day in the last three months of 2023 Failure in basic government services This affects many in the country of 62 million people, as communities, towns and parts of major cities suffer from water and electricity outages.

But the issue that stands out is Unemployment and resulting poverty. South Africa’s official unemployment rate ranks as the worst in the world at 32%, and is even higher – at 45% – for young people aged 15 to 34. This contradicts the country’s position as the most developed country on the African continent. The World Bank estimates that more than half of South Africa’s population lives below the poverty line.

“Together we will do more and we will do better,” ANC leader Ramaphosa said in what became the party’s slogan. At the ANC’s last major rally this weekend, he said he still represents the aspirations of the people of South Africa, promising to prioritize work programs and expand social support for millions who rely on government handouts.

African National Congress Party It asserts that it is the only party that can govern South Africa effectively, and while it undoubtedly faces its biggest electoral challenge, analysts point out that it has the most effective grassroots campaign machine and has traditionally enjoyed support among older South Africans and those living in rural areas. Votes that are given less airtime overall. The possibility of the ANC clinging to its majority has not been ruled out.

The elections will be held in one day, with nearly 28 million people registered to vote across the country’s nine provinces. They will decide the composition of the national parliament as well as the regional legislatures. More than 50 parties have registered to run in the national elections, a record number Independent candidates They were allowed to stand for the first time.

South Africans do not vote directly for their president, but for parties. These parties receive seats in Parliament according to their share of the national vote and legislators elect the President, who has always been from the ANC due to his parliamentary majority.

Just over 80% of South Africa’s population is black, but it is a multiracial country, with large numbers of people who are white, of Indian descent, or of mixed race. Mandela referred to South Africa as the “Rainbow Nation” as he attempted to harness this diversity into a new post-apartheid unity.

But after three decades, Poverty continues to have a disproportionate impact Black majority. While they differ strongly on policy and are by no means united, the main opposition parties, from the centrist Democratic Alliance to the far left, Economic Freedom Fighters And the New Knesset Party Consider one issue here for former President Jacob Zuma: that the ANC failed to fulfill its promise made in 1994, when it swept to victory under the slogan “A Better Life for All.”

The ANC’s appeal may be most evident among young South Africans aged 15 to 34 who did not experience or remember apartheid, many of whom are now voters. These elections could give a voice to a new generation, who understand apartheid and the ANC’s role in defeating it through the stories their parents and grandparents tell, but who do not see how this will help them three decades later.

“Young people are not born, so we cannot tell them about the freedom struggle,” said Simphiwe Mbongos, a regional organizer for the new MK party. “They’re worried about what they’re seeing now.”

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Associated Press writers Mogomotsi Magome in Johannesburg and Farai Motsaka in Durban, South Africa, contributed.

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