Israel fights Hezbollah in Lebanon and signals escalation in Gaza: Live updates

“There was a certain degree of shock at the results of the war,” said Carmit Valensi, an Israeli expert on Hezbollah who served in the Military Intelligence Directorate.

Nearly 20 years later, Israel launched another attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. This time, a series of successes — attacks that killed Hezbollah’s leaders, crippled its communications networks and targeted its weapons caches — were a direct result of Israel’s investments in preparing for a future battle with Hezbollah after that faltering performance in 2006, Israeli security experts say. He said.

But as Israeli forces move deeper into Lebanese territory, they will be exposed to greater risks, including advanced weapons used by Hezbollah. If the Israeli government fails to develop a clear exit strategy, as it struggled to do in Gaza, the army could end up fighting a protracted war that stretches its resources to the limit.

Delivering blow after blow to Hezbollah has helped restore Israel’s reputation as a powerful force in the Middle East, but it has also highlighted how Israel is more prepared for war with Hezbollah on its northern border than it is for an incursion by Hamas, which led the war. October 7 attacks in the south.

“Hezbollah is 10 times stronger than Hamas,” said Yaakov Amidror, a retired major general who served as Israel’s national security adviser from 2011 to 2013. “But the IDF was 20 times more prepared with Hezbollah than it was with Hamas.” “, referring to the Israeli army.

Hezbollah was also more prepared for war with Israel than last time, building an arsenal estimated to contain more than 100,000 rockets and missiles and training tens of thousands of fighters. Its leaders carefully studied Israel, believing that Hezbollah would be able to exchange attacks back and forth with Israel in support of Hamas without sparking an all-out war.

The current Israeli attack against Hezbollah has shown that this was a major error in judgement. Israel escalated its attacks in mid-September, beginning weeks of bombing against Hezbollah and targeting its fighters by blowing up their radios and pagers. Explosive devices led to the death or serious injury of both militants and civilians.

Days later, Israel killed several senior Hezbollah commanders, including Ibrahim Aqeel, the commander of the Radwan Force, elite fighters who Israeli officials concluded were planning to invade northern Israel.

On September 27, Israel bombed an underground compound, killing Hassan Nasrallah, the longtime Hezbollah leader who transformed the group into a powerful political and military force. On Thursday, Israeli officials said they had tried to kill his potential successor, Hashem Safi al-Din, but as of Sunday, it was not clear whether they had succeeded.

At the same time, a massive bombing campaign by the Israeli military struck Hezbollah’s weapons infrastructure and killed its fighters, undermining the group’s ability to respond forcefully. Hundreds of people were killed in Israeli air strikes, including women and children, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Its numbers do not differentiate between combatants and civilians.

at least Four hospitals In southern Lebanon, it was out of service after the Israeli bombing, according to the official Lebanese News Agency. St. Therese Medical Center south of Beirut, the capital, also temporarily suspended its services, saying Israeli strikes in the vicinity had caused “severe damage.”

General Amidror said that one of the main elements of Israel’s intelligence superiority over Hezbollah is the increased deployment of drones flying in the skies of Lebanon.

He said that his investigation into the performance of the Military Intelligence Directorate before and during the 2006 war revealed that Israeli drones in Lebanon were diverted to Gaza, leaving the region with a small number of drones. He added that the investigation came at the request of the Israeli Army Chief of Staff.

“I saw that there were very few drones flying over the north,” he said. “I asked myself: ‘Wait, what’s going on here?’

He said that over the past 18 years, the number of drones over Lebanon has increased significantly.

Israel said it had intensified its attacks against Hezbollah in recent weeks to facilitate the return of about 60,000 displaced residents in northern Israel to their homes.

Eyal Halata, who served as Israel’s national security adviser from 2021 to 2023, said that Israeli forces focused on gathering intelligence on Hezbollah’s leaders and their movements as well as its communications systems and secret facilities.

While Hezbollah has long been aware that Israel was conducting surveys on its members, repeated Israeli military strikes on the group’s leaders suggest that it did not realize how deeply penetrated its ranks.

“We now see how this information gave us an advantage,” said Holata, now a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington-based think tank.

The Israeli intelligence operation against Hezbollah was often able to gather information from secret meetings without Hezbollah’s knowledge, according to three Israeli security officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to communicate with the media.

However, celebrations in Israel of its recent successes may be premature. The ground invasion carried out by Israeli forces in Lebanon, which took place only a few days ago, has already paid its price. On Wednesday, Hezbollah fighters killed nine Israeli soldiers during some of the first battles between the two sides since the start of the invasion. The army said two more soldiers were killed on Friday in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.

“A ground invasion would be much more difficult,” General Amidror said. He added: “We are talking about an organization that is more dangerous, prepared and armed than Hamas. He’s in another league.”

Hezbollah is estimated to have 20,000 active fighters and 25,000 reserve soldiers in 2021, according to the CIA Factbook. Many of its fighters also have operational experience, having fought alongside the Syrian government during that country’s civil war. Sayyed Nasrallah once claimed that Hezbollah had 100,000 armed members.

While Hezbollah has lost about half its arsenal in airstrikes, according to senior Israeli and American officials, it has access to anti-tank guided missiles, posing another challenge for Israeli soldiers.

Even more troubling, most Israeli security experts said, was that it was not clear whether Israel had a clear strategy for exiting Lebanon, raising concerns that the IDF might be embroiled in a war of attrition.

These experts also said that the Israeli government needs to translate the army’s tactical achievements into political success by seeking a diplomatic agreement that restores security to northern Israel. They said that without such an agreement, it is not clear when about 60,000 displaced people will be able to return to their homes.

“Right now, the political level is not doing enough work on how to end this issue,” said Mr. Holata, the former national security adviser. He added: “I fear that our successes will decline without a clear strategy to achieve a political settlement.”

Ronen Bergman Contributed reporting from Tel Aviv, and Nathan Odenheimer From Safed, Israel.