Healthy rotation vital to playoff push – NBC Sports Bay Area & California

SAN FRANCISCO — In late February, Alex Cobb stood by his locker at Scottsdale Stadium and surveyed the room. The New York Giants hadn’t yet signed Blake Snell, but when Cobb looked around and saw the mix of veterans and up-and-comers with big arms, his face lit up. Cobb spoke passionately about the pressures that would be placed on a roster that seemed loaded with players, and that was exactly what he wanted.

At the time, Cobb was feeling so strong while rehabbing from hip surgery that his teammates were beginning to think he might return in early April. Ninety-seven games later, Cobb had yet to throw a single pitch in a major league game, though he was getting very close.

The first half wasn’t quite what the Giants expected, but as they head back into the game Friday in Denver, they’ll be hoping to build on the positive vibes they had in February. A lineup that featured just two pitchers at one low point in the first half should be complete by the end of the month. Robbie Ray could return as early as next week, and Cobb is set to return around the July 30 trade deadline.

“I think the whole team feels like we’re ready to go after the All-Star break when we know what the rotation looks like,” pitching coach Brian Price said Sunday on “Giants Postgame Live.” “We know we have five healthy players, we know we have players who continue to develop in Triple-A who can give us some support if we need it. We’ll probably have the ability to reduce the workload in the relief bullpen, which is huge.”

“If we can ease the workload on the players and make them able to play more comfortably, I think we expect to be strong until the end of the season.”

This Giants team was built on a strong pitching foundation, with president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi trading away a former Cy Young Award winner (Ray) and signing another (Snell) in the offseason. But in the first half, the Giants ranked third from the bottom in the majors in total earned run average and 23rd in earned run average for starters (4.49). Even with the National League’s innings leader leading the pack, they ranked last in innings pitched by their lineup.

Zaidi has heard fans complain in previous seasons when the staff relied too heavily on openers and bullpen games. He doesn’t necessarily agree with those complaints entirely—the Giants are over .500 in bullpen games this year despite being under-performing overall—but he put together a more traditional group over the winter. For a number of reasons, that group didn’t work.

Snell was the biggest disappointment, posting a 6.31 ERA in eight games and suffering two adductor injuries. But those two stints paid off. In a strange way, through four rehab games in the third division and one in the first division, Snell managed to put on a different kind of spring training.

He was feeling rushed early in the year after signing late, but this month, he finally looked like a Cy Young Award winner. In two home games, Snell allowed just two hits over 12 innings.

Even with the high run rate, most of Snell’s points are in line with last season’s stats, and he’s always been a second-inning pitcher. More than any Giants team, he looks ready for a huge, decisive shot, and he may have millions on the line. If he keeps pitching like he did last Sunday, when he faced the minimum over seven innings, Snell will have a better case for opting out of his contract and trying for free agency again.

Ray could also opt out, though with $50 million guaranteed for the next two years and a fresh scar on his elbow, the 32-year-old would have a tougher time doing so. The Giants have been intentional about his rehab from Tommy John surgery, never changing the schedule even as injuries piled up for others, and they’re happy with where they’ve ended up.

Ray has played in nine rehab games and played five innings last time out. He has been consistently good and looks ready to start playing hard. He could be in the starting lineup next Wednesday or Thursday in Los Angeles. Elbow and shoulder soreness kept Cobb from returning in the first half as expected, but he has felt strong in recent weeks and is expected to return after Ray makes his first start of the season.

The New York Giants expect to enter August with Logan Webb, Snell, Ray and Cobb in some order. Given the recent injuries to three of them, they won’t be making any assumptions about what the next two months will look like, but on paper that means two Cy Young Award winners, a 2023 All-Star and a 2024 All-Star.

If all goes well, Zaidi, Bob Melvin and Price will finally get a chance to give the others a breathing space. At the top of the list is another player who joined the team in the postseason, Jordan Hicks, who helped keep the team alive before it ran out of fuel. If the team makes it to the postseason, it will be largely due to Hicks’ ability to dominate early and then help hold the line when the lineup was assembled in June. Hicks had posted a 3.79 ERA in 95 innings before the offseason, but now it’s time for the team to take a different path.

There have been no public hints about how the Giants will handle Hicks in the second half of the game, but he has already played 17 1/3 innings after a career-high. Whether he moves to the relief bullpen full-time, partners with another starter, or gets an extended break before returning to the starting lineup, the Giants will need to find a way to limit Hicks’ workload.

“Obviously Bob and Brian Price were very cautious with his innings and pitches in individual games and probably erred on the side of caution, which I think put more pressure on our bullpen, but in the long run we think that’s what’s best for the team,” Zaidi said. “We’ve said since we signed Jordan (that) when we get to the point where we have enough options in the starting lineup and your innings really go up, maybe we’ll have a conversation about the role.”

The Giants will have to talk about a couple of their young pitchers, too. Kyle Harrison’s ankle injury has given him some relief, but the 22-year-old is three solid starts away from tying his career high for innings in a season. Fellow 22-year-old Hayden Birdsong is 24 innings shy of last year’s total.

The conversation has changed for the front office, but in a way, it’s what Zaidi expected. He wanted the young pitchers to shoulder the burden early before the veterans took over in the second half, and while starting options like Keaton Wynn and Mason Black faltered, Birdsong was ready to step in.

The rest of the gap was made up by the bullpen, which is where the Giants now face their biggest fears.

Tyler Rogers’ next outing will be his 50th, and he leads the majors in games played. Ryan Walker is tied for second, and given the way Melvin handled Camilo Duvall on Sunday, Walker is likely set to earn a new role even as the Giants try to find him more rest. There are 29 National League pitchers with 40 games, and Eric Miller and Taylor Rogers put the Giants on that list with four. Duvall’s next outing will be his 40th.

Melvin did his best in the first half, but he’s talked a lot in recent weeks about how a different plan is needed in the second half. The workload is not only uncomfortable for the Rams, but also for a team that hopes to qualify for the postseason and doesn’t want to get there with a tired squad.

In an ideal world, returning starters would allow someone like Hicks or Harrison to bolster the relief bullpen, allowing the backups to rest longer. Hicks, a former shutout, is an especially obvious choice to join the late-inning mix in the final stretch as the Giants continue their offensive streak.

The New York Giants have a 25% chance of playing in October, according to FanGraphs. The first half was uninspiring, but in a mediocre National League, they’re just three games out of a playoff spot and three and a half games out of the second wild card spot. That’s ground they could make up quickly given their MLB schedule after the break.

The Giants open their campaign at Coors Field on Friday against the last-place Colorado Rockies, then welcome them to the city the following weekend. In between are four games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are currently battling more serious injuries, and the next month includes games against the Oakland Athletics, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins.

The table is now open as they are about to start using the expected formation. Given some low points in the last few months, the Giants really couldn’t have asked for a better opportunity.

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