Iranian elections: With youth losing hope, a reformist runs for president

Snap elections have been called after a fatal helicopter crash. The candidate promised a different approach at home and abroad. Suddenly, there is an element of suspense and unpredictability in Iran, as voters go to the polls to choose a new president.

Elections in the Islamic Republic are tightly controlled, with all candidates vetted by an influential committee of clerics before they can run. Recently, voter apathy has become widespread.

But this time there is a wild card: former heart surgeon and reformist health minister Masoud Pezeshkian, who has declared the actions of Iran’s morality police, who enforce strict rules on women’s dress, “immoral.”

Hijab rules are now regularly flouted by women, and Mr Pezeshkian, 69, said: “If wearing certain clothes is a sin, then behavior towards women and girls is a 100 times greater sin. “Nowhere in religion is it permissible to confront someone because of their clothes.

He also promised to try to improve relations with the West and revive nuclear talks, hoping to end sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

Mr. Pezeshkian has the public support of two former reformist presidents, Hassan Rouhani and Mohammad Khatami, and former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

His campaign rallies have attracted growing crowds in the run-up to polling day.

On Thursday, two candidates withdrew from the competition – in an apparent attempt by the religious establishment to avoid splitting the Conservative vote.

The latest opinion polls showed Pezeshkian ahead of Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, the former commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard who currently serves as Speaker of Parliament, and Saeed Jalili, the former hard-line nuclear negotiator.

Conservatives oppose dealing with the West and say Iran can succeed despite sanctions.

Participation figures are seen as a key test of the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy.

It reached record levels in the parliamentary elections in March and the last presidential elections in 2021.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – who represents the supreme authority in Iran – has called for “maximum” participation. It is certain that a large number of regime supporters will vote.

But many young and middle-class Iranians are deeply disillusioned and distrustful of any political process orchestrated by the Islamic Republic, and now want to end 45 years of clerical rule.

“There are a lot of billboards on the streets asking people to ‘vote for a better tomorrow,’ but we don’t believe that anymore,” a 20-year-old student in Tehran told me via text message. “No one wants to vote anymore.”

Since the death of the young woman, Mahsa Amini, while in moral police custody in 2022 — and the uprising it sparked across the country — the gap between Iran’s leaders and its people has widened dramatically.

The brutal crackdown on protesters has increased hatred of the regime, especially among Generation Z.

The hopes placed on reformers in the past have been dashed time and again. Over the past few years, those who want to reform the system have been increasingly marginalized.

Former President Hassan Rouhani was not even allowed to run in the recent elections for an influential body, the Assembly of Experts, whose job it is to appoint the supreme leader.

Many Iranians have lost hope that any real change will come through the ballot box.

“I won’t vote this year,” a 70-year-old woman in Tehran, who has previously voted for reformist candidates, told the BBC. “I know nothing will change. The economy is in a very bad state, and a generation of young people now just want to leave Iran.”

Azad (not her real name), a women’s rights activist who was jailed during the protests, described what happened as an “election circus.”

“When the puppeteer is one person named Khamenei, it doesn’t matter which name comes out of the ballot box,” she told me on a social media app. “At the height of the unrest, people repeatedly chanted this slogan in the streets: ‘Reformists, conservatives, game over.’”

Some believe the religious establishment only allowed Bezeshkian to run as part of an effort to boost turnout.

Azad described the matter as a “game” played by the regime, and said: “We do not trust them and do not want to be subjected to manipulation again.”

Several people in Tehran I have spoken to over the past few days have confirmed this view.

“Voting is an obligation, but I won’t do it,” one law student told the BBC. “Because all previous elections showed that none of the elected presidents offered anything better for the people.”

But others may be drawn to the polls by the small ray of hope for change that Mr. Pezeshkian represents for liberal-minded Iranians.

“I will vote for Pezeshkian,” said Maryam, 54, from Tehran. “I believe change can only come from within Iran – through reform.”

She likes the fact that his background is not in the security forces and that he is “clean”, and there are no corruption charges against him.

She also hopes he can improve Iran’s relations with the outside world, and believes he will win.

If he does, there will be a big question mark over what room he will have for manoeuvre.

“Pezeshkian is a reformist in name only,” says Sanam Vakil of the Chatham House think tank.

“He supports the Islamic Republic and is fiercely loyal to the Supreme Leader. His participation will likely boost public turnout and increase enthusiasm, but we should expect nothing more than a difference in tone if he is elected.”