Israel has dealt Hezbollah heavy blows, but the victory it seeks may be elusive.

it has been A devastating week For Hezbollah and the people of Lebanon.

Bombs hidden in the group Pagers and wireless devices Israeli strikes on Beirut killed dozens of people and wounded thousands – many of them Hezbollah members. Two senior Hezbollah leadersIsrael bombed what it said were 1,600 militant sites across large parts of Lebanon. Hundreds of people killed And the displacement of thousands.

Israel says its goal is to secure the border so that tens of thousands of people can reach it. Flee under Hezbollah fire They have been able to return home for nearly a year. But it is unclear whether the recent operations – despite their tactical success – will achieve that.

“No one inside or outside the defense establishment has any idea how to translate these impressive operational achievements into political benefit, into a real victory that would stop the war in the north,” wrote columnist Nadav Eyal in the Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth.

“As long as Hezbollah retains any firepower, the northern border will not be able to return to normal.”

Hezbollah began firing into Israel the day after Hamas launched an attack on October 7 that sparked the war in Gaza. Its stated goal was to pin down Israeli forces in the north to help its ally Hamas, which like Hezbollah is backed by Iran. The Lebanese militant group has said it will halt attacks if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza. Which seems increasingly unlikely..

Hezbollah’s response to last week’s escalation appeared weak. The hundreds of rockets and drones it fired at northern Israel — including much farther from the border than it had previously hit — caused few casualties and only scattered damage.

The militants Launch a longer range missile On Wednesday morning, a rocket fell on Tel Aviv for the first time, in a clear escalation. The Israeli army said it intercepted the rocket, and there were no reports of injuries or damage.

Experts say Hezbollah has more of these weapons in its reserves.

Israeli air power has its limits.

Footage of Monday’s Israeli airstrikes, which sent up clouds of dust and smoke, looked all too familiar.

The U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, the NATO campaign in Libya in 2011, and the U.S.-led war against the Islamic State in 2014 all began with massive airstrikes that lit up the skies. In each case, the wars lasted for months or years, with ground troops playing a decisive role.

Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza began with nearly three weeks of intense airstrikes on the territory, followed by a full-scale ground invasion. Nearly a year later, Hamas is still resisting and holding dozens of hostages.

So far, Israel has adopted narrower goals regarding Hezbollah — not disarming or defeating the Lebanese militant group, but a new arrangement in which the militants would withdraw from the border and cease their attacks.

But even this may not be possible without a ground invasion.

There is also the risk of mission creep, as America discovered after its wars in Iraq and Afghanistan dragged on for years after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein and the Taliban. NATO airstrikes initially aimed at preventing a massacre in Benghazi turned into a seven-month campaign of regime change. From which Libya has not yet fully recovered..

Hezbollah likely has capabilities we have not seen yet.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Galant boasted that Monday’s strikes alone downed tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets and missiles.

He added, “This week is the most difficult for Hezbollah since its founding. A blow has been dealt to the chain of command, to the terrorists themselves at various levels, to their firing capabilities and to their morale.”

Hezbollah has acknowledged that it has suffered heavy blows, but even if Galant’s assessment is correct, it still has significant resources.

“The missile unit is still active,” said Qassem Qassir, a former Hezbollah member who has written a book about the group. “Hezbollah has absorbed the initial shock, and the battle has just begun. Hezbollah has only used a small part of its capabilities.”

The militant group was founded with Iranian help in the wake of Israel’s 1982 invasion and occupation of Lebanon and seeks to destroy Israel. It has survived countless battles with Israeli forces, replaced several slain leaders over the years and rearmed after a month-long war in 2006.

Hezbollah claims to have about 100,000 fighters. Before the outbreak of the recent hostilities, it was believed to have about 150,000 rockets and missiles, including long-range missiles capable of hitting anywhere inside Israel, and some precision-guided missiles.

Iran is likely to keep its most advanced weapons in reserve as it seeks to avoid sparking a full-scale war.

Sarit Zehavi, a former Israeli military intelligence analyst and founder of the Alma Center for Research and Education, a think tank focused on the northern border, said Hezbollah has hidden its weapons in various parts of the country, including areas near Beirut where it has a strong presence.

“Hezbollah was building up its reserves, so they spread their ammunition and infrastructure everywhere, and that’s why so many targets are being attacked, because they are everywhere,” she added.

Hezbollah is militarily more advanced than Hamas. Hezbollah also has a much larger area to operate, extensive supply lines that connect it more directly to Iran, and tunnel networks that are perhaps more extensive than those in Gaza.

In the event of a ground invasion, Hezbollah fighters may join in. Thousands of fighters From Iranian-backed groups from Iraq, Yemen and elsewhere in the region.

Neither side has good options.

Israel says it has no immediate plans for a ground invasion, but it is prepared, and has sent thousands of its veteran troops from Gaza to the northern border. If the air campaign fails to subdue Hezbollah, Israeli leaders will be tempted to send their own troops there.

Even if the goal is simply to create a buffer zone to better secure the north, the risks are high.

Most Israelis are insulated from the air war by distance and Israel’s missile defense systems, but a ground invasion would mean more casualties and a prolonged fight for soldiers and reservists already tired from a year of war in Gaza.

Hezbollah waged an 18-year insurgency against Israel the last time it occupied Lebanon, eventually forcing it to withdraw, and another long-term occupation could be just as costly.

Israel has already faced international outrage over the war in Gaza, including ongoing investigations by The highest international courtsIsrael risks becoming even more isolated if it launches a similar campaign in Lebanon.