JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Earnings for the First Quarter of 2023

JPMorgan Chase is set to report first-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Friday.

Here’s what Wall Street expects:

• Earnings: $3.41 per share, up 29.7 percent from a year earlier, according to Refinitiv.
• Revenue: $36.24 billion, up 14.7% from a year earlier.
• Deposits: $2.31 trillion, according to StreetAccount.
• Provision for credit losses: $2.27 billion.
• Trading revenue: fixed income $5.29 billion, equities $2.86 billion.

JPMorgan, the largest US bank by assets, will be closely watched for clues about how the industry is doing after the collapse of two regional lenders last month.

Analysts expect a mixed bag of conflicting trends. For example, JPMorgan likely benefited from an influx of deposits after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank were hit by killer bank inflows.

But the industry has had to pay for deposits as customers convert their holdings into higher-yielding instruments such as money market funds. This is likely to limit banks’ gains from higher interest rates amid the Fed’s efforts to tame inflation.

The flow of deposits through US financial institutions was the main concern of analysts and investors this quarter. That’s because smaller banks faced pressure last month as customers sought the perceived safety of huge banks including JPMorgan and Bank of America. But the bigger picture may be that deposits are generally leaving the regulated banking system as customers realize they can earn higher returns outside of checking and savings accounts.

Another key question will be whether JPMorgan and others are tightening lending standards ahead of an expected recession in the United States, which could curb economic growth this year by making it more difficult for consumers and businesses to borrow money.

Banks are starting to set aside more loan loss provisions on expectations of a slowing economy later this year, and that could affect results. JPMorgan is expected to record provisions of $2.27 billion for credit losses, according to a StreetAccount estimate.

Wall Street may offer a little help this quarter, as investment banking fees will likely remain low thanks to a still-closed IPO market. Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Barnum V said In February, investment banking revenues were trending down 20% from a year earlier, and that trading was trending “a little worse” as well.

Finally, analysts will want to hear what JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has to say about the economy and his outlook on how the regional banking crisis will play out. JPMorgan played a central role in propping up client bank First Republic, which faltered last month, in part by leading efforts to inject $30 billion in deposits.

JPMorgan shares are down about 4% this year, outperforming KBW Bank’s 31% decline.

Wells Fargo and Citigroup are scheduled to report results later on Friday, while Goldman Sachs and Bank of America report on Tuesday and Morgan Stanley to release results on Wednesday.

This story is evolving. . Please check back for updates