Looks like Ukrainian troops fought all the way to the Russian border

Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv, in northeastern Ukraine, appear to have pushed Russian forces east beyond Ternova, a settlement on the Russian border.

If confirmed, Ukrainians liberation of Ternova could be a sign inflection point In the 10-week-old Russian war in Ukraine. In late March, Ukrainian forces expelled the Russian invaders from northern Ukraine. Now it seems that they are leading the invaders from northeast Ukraine too.

Heavy fighting continues around Izyum, south of Kharkiv – and also around Kherson on the Black Sea coast of Ukraine. Late last month, the Russians advanced briefly around Kherson before stopping. Recently, Russian battalions captured a few settlements around Izium.

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But these Russian gains are jeopardized by Ukrainian gains around Kharkiv, a city of 1.4 million people just 25 miles from Russia. With the collapse of the Russian front around Kharkiv, it could free up powerful Ukrainian brigades to advance south, toward Izyum, potentially turning the fighting there in Kyiv’s favour.

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was the first to hint at the Russian withdrawal across the border near Kharkiv. Battalions of the 138th separate mechanized brigade, part of the 6th Russian Combined Arms Army, fled across the border to the Belgorod region of Russia “due to heavy losses,” according to the General Staff. advertiser Tuesday.

Pentagon Daily briefing on Ukraine He did not mention the alleged Russian withdrawal. But heat-detecting satellites operated by NASA not registered Big fires started around Ternova around Friday – fires that could indicate intense fighting. The fires appeared to have died out on Monday.

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If the Ukrainian forces around Kharkiv, including the battle-hardened 92nd and 93rd mechanized brigades, had already pushed into the Russian border, not only would they be able to prevent Russian artillery from targeting Kharkiv – they could fire them. king Rifles on Russian gathering areas on the other side of the border.

They will also be free to turn right and head toward Izium, 60 miles south of Kharkiv. The Russian Army has 99 front-line tactical battalions in Ukraine. Dozens of the best BTGs slowly progress in fits and start south and west after Izium.

Think of any Ukrainian battalions heading toward Izyum from the north as a hammer. Ukrainian battalions south Isium, including the 4th and 17th Tank Brigade and the 95th Air Assault Brigade, will be an anvil. Conditions became clearer for a major victory for Ukraine.

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Monday 9 May was Victory Day in Russia – the day the country celebrates its defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. Many observers expected Russian President Vladimir Putin to use Victory Day as an opportunity to announce a major escalation of the war in Ukraine.

This did not happen. The Russians may not have lost the war yet. But they certainly didn’t win it. The Kremlin apparently assumed that the defenders of Ukraine would collapse shortly after Russian tanks crossed the border on the morning of February 24.

They did not give up. And after 76 days, the Ukrainian army can be said to be as strong as ever. mobilized its reserves. He. She taken over More than 1,200 Russian vehicles. It is finally beginning to use some of the hundreds of artillery pieces donated by the United States and its other allies in the fighting.

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“Russia’s underestimation of the Ukrainian resistance and its ‘best-case scenario’ planning have led to demonstrable operational failures, preventing President Putin from declaring a major military success in Ukraine at… Victory Day Parade”, UK MoD to explain.

What happens next depends on Kyiv’s assessment of its strength – and Moscow’s weakness. Do Ukrainian leaders believe Russia lacks the reserves to reconquer northeastern Ukraine? If so, will these commanders send to the south the two best brigades in the Kharkiv region?

And could those brigades maintain an advance all the way to Izium in order to begin what would be one of the most important battles of the war?