Macron’s coalition leads in opinion polls ahead of early elections

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President Emmanuel Macron’s hopes of avoiding defeat in the first round of France’s early parliamentary elections received a boost when new opinion polls showed his centrist coalition gaining more ground.

A new daily poll conducted by Le Figaro Institute, LCI Radio and Radio Sud on Thursday showed centrists at 22 percent in the first round of voting scheduled for June 30, compared to 18 percent in the poll conducted from June 10 to 11. A Toluna Harris Interactive poll of Challenges, M6 and RTL put the alliance at 21 percent.

Both polls predict the far-right National Rally party will be the clear winner, with 34 percent according to IFOP and 33 percent in the Harris poll. The leftist New Popular Front bloc received 29 percent and 26 percent, respectively.

A third poll conducted by OpinionWay on Friday showed the National Front party at 35 percent and the centrists at 20 percent.

Harris’ forecast suggests that France is likely heading toward a hung parliament, which could lead to political stalemate.

The president’s coalition, which includes Macron’s Ennahda party and two other parties, won 14.6 percent in the European Parliament elections that took place on June 9, placing third. This result prompted Macron to dissolve Parliament in a shocking move that stunned his allies and the country in general. Opinion polls immediately following his decision showed his party weakening in the mid-teens.

Centrist campaign consultants and political analysts have warned that she is at risk of being knocked out of the vast majority of runoff positions unless she begins to gain traction by the end of this week with support in the polls at least in her 20s. .

Polls suggest Macron’s camp gained some momentum during the first official week of the campaign in which his standard-bearer, outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, was omnipresent on television and in debates.

This week, Macron’s allies are anxiously trying to counter a perception among French voters that the only way to stop the far right is to vote on June 30 for the New Patriotic Party, which has a far-left agenda on taxes and spending.

“The French people have a choice between three blocs and three paths,” Attal told reporters on Thursday.

In the parliamentary elections, candidates need to win 12.5 percent of registered voters in order to qualify for the second round on July 7, which means achieving 20 percent if, as polls predict, turnout reaches 65 percent. A higher turnout means a lower threshold for entering the second round of elections, which would help Macron’s coalition.

According to Harris’ forecasts, the National Rally will become the largest party in the 577-member National Assembly with 220-250 seats, but without an absolute majority. The left will win by 135 votes to 165, while Macron’s coalition will win 95 votes to 130 seats, i.e. half of its current 250 seats.

In another boost for the centrist camp, OpinionWay and political analyst Chloe Morin this week produced research suggesting that candidates from Macron’s coalition were more likely to win over the far right in two-way runoff races than candidates from the left.

In the so-called dual competitions between the National Front and the National Front, 41 percent of participants said they would vote for the far right, and 34 percent would vote for the left. In the pairings between the National Front and Macron’s coalition, the centrists will come out on top with 44 percent, compared to 36 percent of voters who choose the far right.