NASA asserts that hacking the space station represents a problem of the “highest” risk and consequences

American space officials do not like to talk about the dangers of astronauts flying aboard the old International Space Station, the elements of which are now more than a quarter century old.

However, a new report confirms that NASA managers responsible for operating the space station are seriously concerned about a small Russian portion of the station, essentially a tunnel connecting a larger module to the docking port, that is leaking.

Russian and American officials knew that this small PrK module, which is located between the Progress spacecraft’s airlock and Zvezda The unit has been leaking since September 2019. New reportA report published by NASA’s inspector general on Thursday provides details not previously published by the space agency that underscore the seriousness of the problem.

New details about the leak

For example, in February of this year, NASA identified an increase in the leakage rate from less than 1 pound of atmosphere per day to 2.4 pounds per day, and in April that rate rose to 3.7 pounds per day. Despite years of investigation, neither Russian nor American officials have been able to determine the underlying cause of the leak.

The report, signed by Deputy Inspector General George A. Scott: “Although the root cause of the leak remains unknown, both agencies have narrowed their focus to internal and external welds.”

The risk mitigation plan is to keep the hatch on Zvezda The unit leading to the PrK tunnel is closed. Ultimately, if the leak worsens further, this hatch may need to be closed permanently, reducing the number of Russian docking ports on the space station from four to three.

Publicly, NASA has sought to play down concerns about the cracking problem because it so far remains confined to the PrK tunnel and has not spread to other parts of the station. However, Ars reported in June that the fracking issue had reached the highest level of concern in the space agency’s 5×5 “risk matrix” ranking the likelihood and consequences of risks to spaceflight activities. Russian leaks are now rated a “5” for both high probability and high consequence.

At the time, NASA did not comment or confirm the space agency’s concerns about the risk matrix classification. However, the new report confirms the agency’s concerns.

“In May and June 2024, ISS and Roscosmos program officials met to discuss growing concerns about the increasing leakage rate,” the inspector general’s report said. “The International Space Station program has subsequently raised the risk of a Service Module transfer tunnel leak to the highest risk level in its risk management system. According to NASA, Roscosmos is confident that it will be able to monitor and close the Service Module hatch before the leakage rate reaches a level Untenable However, NASA and Roscosmos have not reached agreement on the point at which the leakage rate becomes untenable.

A mysterious future in low Earth orbit

The report comes as NASA studies the future of the space station. The US space agency and Russia have an agreement to continue flying the station until 2028, and NASA wants to extend its operations until 2030. NASA had expected that it would agree to this extension more than a year ago, but so far no agreement has been reached. It has been completed.

Once the station reaches the end of its life, NASA intends to transfer its low-Earth orbit activities to private space stations, and has funded initial development work by Axiom Space, Northrop Grumman, Blue Origin, and Voyager Space. Northrop has since withdrawn from the competition, saying it would not be a profitable business. There is general uncertainty about whether any private space station operators will be ready in 2030.

Another potential option for NASA is to extend the life of the space station beyond 2030, but this would require a lot of work to ensure the space station structure remains viable and another extension agreement with Russia. The American partnership with that country has been severely strained by the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“Extending the International Space Station beyond 2030 will require significant funding to operate and maintain the station, acceptance of increased risks posed by its aging components and structures, and assurances of continued support from NASA’s international partners,” the new report states. “Complicating matters further is the possibility that NASA will continue to face flat or declining budget, inflation, and supply chain challenges.”