The Twins Are Eliminated: 5 Reasons Why They’re Broken When You Calculate This

MINNEAPOLIS — There is no single reason for a team’s collapse. It took ineptitude across the organization for the Minnesota Twins to slide from a 92.4 percent chance of reaching the playoffs on Aug. 17 to being eliminated Friday in a 7-2 loss to the Baltimore Orioles at Target Field.

Baltimore starter Cade Povich, who was drafted by the Twins and acquired in a trade for Jorge Lopez in August 2022, shut down his former team long enough to send it to its 25th loss in 37 games.

Had the Twins won, they would have remained in contention for a playoff spot after Atlanta beat Kansas City 3-0. Instead, the Twins would end the season with two meaningless games. Here are five reasons why the Twins will sit at home in October while Cleveland, Kansas City and Detroit earn postseason berths.

Wrong starting plan

Rookie Zebby Matthews posted a 5.71 ERA in eight starts. (Denis Burrowy/USA Today via Imagn Images)

As if trading Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda 288 1/3 (in 2023) to free agency wasn’t daunting enough, it seemed even more daunting that two of the team’s potential replacements were pitchers who have recently battled injuries, Anthony DeSclafani And Chris Paddack. Paddack was coming off his second Tommy John surgery, and injuries had limited DeSclafani to 118 2/3 innings the previous two seasons. DeSclafani would never throw a pitch for the Twins, while Paddack lasted 88 1/3 innings before a second trip to the injured list ended his season. Another rookie, Louie Farland, struggled and was removed from the rotation in late April. A lack of reliable options has left the Twins reliant on starters Simon Woods-Richardson and David Festa. A third starter, Zibby Matthews, joined the rotation after Joe Ryan suffered a season-ending injury.

Injury to key players

Every team deals with injuries. The Twins’ problems happened to include their best players. Royce Lewis missed 70 games with a quad strain on Opening Day, then hit the injured list again in July with a right adductor strain, costing him an additional 16 games. Despite missing 14 games with a sore knee in May and 28 games with a sore hip in August and September, Byron Buxton appeared in 100 contests for only the second time in his career. The ripple effects from Ryan’s exit from the Aug. 7 start in Chicago were felt with a major second-tier strain the rest of the season as the Twins were forced to rely on three starting pitchers, all of whom posted career-high totals in September and struggled to get deep into games. The lack of innings of rotation caused the bullpen to work harder to cover more innings. But the biggest injury was the loss of All-Star Carlos Correa, who returned in mid-September after missing 53 games with right plantar fasciitis. The absence of Correa’s bat, consistent defense and leadership cannot be understated. Injuries to Max Kepler and Alex Kirillov also cost the Twins the Twins’ main left-handed bats.

Crime dies a slow death

Carlos Correa was limited to just 11 plays in the second half. The Twins missed his bat. (Brian Fluharty/Imagine Images)

At one point midway through the season, the Twins ranked fifth in the major leagues in runs scored. Lewis, Correa, Buxton, Jose Miranda, Matt Wallner and Brooks Lee were all out of their minds at the plate. But that offense disappeared when the Twins needed it most. The front office’s plan relied on the Twins outscoring their opponents, something the group proved capable of most of the summer. But around the same time Ryan was hit, crime went silent. Even after Correa and Buxton returned, the Twins continued to struggle, producing 3.7 points per game during a critical 37-game stretch.

The bullpen failed

Touted as one of the top two prospects in the American League, the Twins entered Friday ranked 18th out of 30 MLB teams in win probability added at 1.82. Cleveland leads the majors at 15.32. Injuries limited Brock Stewart and Justin Topa, who the Twins thought would be key contributors, to action for 37 games overall. Joan Duran missed the first month of the season with an oblique injury and never looked well. Working at low speed, Duran suffered a massive decline, as he struggled in unsaveable situations. Left-hander Caleb Thielbar also went down. Jorge Alcala collapsed in the second half. Meanwhile, none of the Twins’ offseason additions — a group that included Topa, Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont and Stephen Ockert — contributed effectively. To make matters worse, the team’s lone trade deadline hit, Trevor Richards, walked 11 and threw seven wild pitches in 13 innings before he was designated for assignment.

Cleveland dominance

A team can only get hit in the gut so many times before they hit the mat and are unable to get back up. Cleveland repeatedly cried foul over the Twins, dominating the season series 10-3. Three of the Guardians’ 10 wins have come by walk-off. Five of them were single-round victories and three matches were decided by two rounds. Essentially, Cleveland put the Twins through the wringer all season.

(Top photo of Rocco Baldelli removing Trevor Richards from a game: Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images)