Top 25 Teams Tomorrow Today: Tennessee in Top 5, Michigan Makes Big Jump in College Football Rankings

The fourth week in college football It was one of the first slates to feature conference games scattered across the landscape, and the arrival of this part of the season brings the first real challenges for voters in the AP Top 25 poll. In the early weeks of the season, there are only a handful of seeded games that can lead to tough voting decisions. But now that we’re in conference games, voters will be challenged to consider the strength of teams beyond their number of losses.

Michigan took a big hit from its Week 2 loss to Texas, falling outside the top 15 after failing to compete in what was widely seen as a College Football Playoff showdown. But after a quarterback switch and a big win over USC in Week 4, the Wolverines showed it may be too early to sell their stock because their hard-hitting football style is still good enough to compete with some of the top teams in the Big Ten.

Voters will also begin to consider how long preseason biases can affect the rankings of teams that have yet to face tougher tests and post wins in the rankings. Tennessee knocked off North Carolina when the Wolfpack were ranked, but a road win Saturday against Oklahoma will have a more significant impact as the Vols continue their climb in the rankings throughout the season with momentum that could push them into the top five.

It will also be difficult to pinpoint where USC and Oklahoma fit into the first picture after the losses; both clearly showed performances in defeat that deserved to remain in the rankings but now they will be compared to the teams that have not lost. Every voter has a different way of splitting hairs and dividing a team’s performance, potential and resume. With each week of conference play added to the profile, we get a little more clarity on how these teams compare to each other.

Here are our predictions for the new AP Top 25 poll results after Week 4.

1. Texas (Last week — 1)There is no change at the top as the Texans have been dominant without their starting quarterback. However, unlike other teams who also turned to a backup quarterback in Week 4, the Longhorns’ second-string quarterback is Arch Manning.

2. Georgia (2)The Bulldogs were out of contention in Week 4 and will return to action next week at Alabama.

3. Ohio State (3)It was a bit of a slow start and a stunning early loss, but Ohio State quickly got things back on track and pulled out a crushing 49-14 home win against Marshall.

4. Alabama (4)The Crimson Tide were out of contention in Week 4 and will return to action next week against Georgia.

5. Tennessee (6)The Volunteers joined the top five after hitting the road and giving Oklahoma a warm welcome to the Southeastern Conference in prime time. Once again, Tennessee’s defense put on a strong show as this team proved to be a more complete team week in and week out.

6. Ole Miss (5)The Rebels had a big advantage over Tennessee in the polls last week, but the Rebels’ best win was their road win over Wake Forest. The sweeps are impressive and Ole Miss looks good, but AP voters will focus more on the resume and profile as we move into the season.

7. Miami (8)One thing we haven’t seen from Miami in recent years — at least not consistently — is the ability to step on the gas and really beat teams. USF did its best to make things competitive early, but unlike some other top-10 teams, the Hurricanes were able to eliminate any belief in a surprise with a dominant second half.

8. Missouri (7)There could be some change in Missouri’s standings after Vanderbilt forced it into overtime. The gap between sixth and ninth was narrow enough in last week’s voting that a closer-than-expected result could be enough to overtake the Tigers.

9. Oregon (9): The Ducks were out of action in Week 4 and will return to action next week at UCLA.

10. Pennsylvania (10)No major changes for the Nittany Lions after their expected loss to Kent State.

11. Michigan (18)The expectation is that Michigan votes will be all over the place after Saturday’s statement win against USC. The Wolverines were ranked No. 13 last week as a 2-1 team with the best win coming from Fresno State, but they were also left off the ballot entirely for five voters and ranked 20th or lower for 19 voters. Those low ratings will change after handing the Trojans their first loss of the season, and voters who were higher in their opinion of Michigan before the game will likely move the Wolverines into the top 10.

12. Utah (12)No Cam Rising? No problem for Utah, which now improves to 4-0 on the season and 2-0 in Big 12 play with a hard-fought road win over Oklahoma State. The Utes defense did a great job, shutting down Ollie Gordon II and keeping the Cowboys’ offense in check before a late rush made the score, 22-19, look closer than it had been for most of the afternoon.

13. University of Southern California (11)The straight-up win over LSU puts USC in a comfortable, predictable position as it now compares to other once-lost teams in the rankings. There’s no shame in losing to Michigan in Ann Arbor, but there’s certainly disappointment given how close USC came to pulling off a thrilling second-half win against the defending national champion.

14. Louisiana State University (16)It looked risky for a while, but LSU was able to take control of the game late, and shouldn’t take too much punishment from voters after a 34-17 win over UCLA.

15. Notre Dame (17)Notre Dame’s strength remains its defense, and that’s exactly the group that helped keep things stable during a 28-3 win over Miami (Ohio).

16. Louisville (19)The Cardinals have had strong support from voters despite not having much in the rankings, so we expect Saturday’s 31-19 home win against Georgia Tech to be more of an affirmation than a reason to move forward.

17. Iowa (20)The Cyclones returned to action for the first time since their emotional win over Iowa, managing to get things underway with a 52-7 win over Arkansas State.

18. Clemson (21)The Tigers led 59-14 heading into the fourth quarter against North Carolina State after a fast start that included scoring on six of its first seven attempts. It was a resounding result for a Clemson team that appears poised to return to the top of the ACC but not one that will cause a major change in the AP Poll rankings.

19. Illinois (24)There were 28 non-Illinois voters in last week’s ballot. We expect that won’t be the case after the Fighting Illinois team’s 31-24 overtime win over Nebraska extended its record to 4-0 for the first time since 2011.

20. Oklahoma (15)While voters will be more enthusiastic about Tennessee’s position, there’s also a takeaway from Saturday night’s game that suggests the Sooners aren’t quite ready to consider a top-15 team.

21. Indiana (NR)History will point to Indiana going 4-0 for the first time since 2020, but this feels a lot different. Maybe it’s because this season started late due to COVID-19, or maybe it’s because the Hoosiers have outscored their opponents by a combined score of 202-37. Saturday’s 52-14 win over Charlotte was just more of the same grit we’ve seen from Indiana all season, and those impressive results have been getting more attention from voters each week.

22. Brigham Young University (NR): The Cougars went 4-0 for the first time since 2012 after dominating Kansas State, and the win over the Wildcats added to a record that already includes a road win at SMU.

23. Oklahoma State (14)If we were basing our rankings on resume alone, there wouldn’t be a strong case for ranking Oklahoma State. The Cowboys’ best win was against Arkansas, and they looked good enough against a Utah team that relied on a second-string quarterback. But with so much preseason bias from voters, no bad losses and not many obvious alternatives, I think the Bucs will remain ranked heading into next week’s game at Kansas State — which now looks like a game that could decide survival in the Big 12 title race.

24. Kansas State (13)The Wildcats were in a disappointing position on the road after a big win, and now they have to pick themselves up to stay atop the Big 12 title race. It was a poor performance with enough mental errors to think the problems are fixable, but it’s still a performance that will lead to a noticeable drop in the standings.

25. Texas A&M (25): Texas A&M could very well fall out of the top 25 due to a late-game win against Bowling Green. The gap between the 25th-ranked Aggies and the unranked teams was slim last week, but a number of those teams also lost, so the stalemate in the polls could leave Texas A&M outside the cutoff line.

It is expected to withdraw.: No. 22 Nebraska, No. 23 Northern Illinois