Ukraine’s incursion into Russia’s border embarrasses Putin. How will it affect the course of the war?

fast Ukrainian invasion The attack on Russia’s Kursk region was the largest cross-border raid by Kyiv’s forces in the nearly two-and-a-half-year war, exposing Russia’s vulnerabilities and dealing a painful blow to the Kremlin.

The surprise raid prompted thousands of civilians to flee the area as Russian military attacks escalated. The struggles To repel the attack.

For Ukraine, the cross-border raid provides a much-needed morale boost at a time when the country’s undermanned and under-armed forces are facing relentless Russian attacks along a front line that stretches more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles).

An overview of the Ukrainian raid and its aftermath.

How did the Ukrainian attack develop?

Kyiv forces It was poured in the Kursk region. Heavy clashes erupted between Ukrainian security forces and border guards from several directions early Tuesday morning, quickly overrunning a number of checkpoints and field fortifications manned by lightly armed border guards and infantry units along the 245-kilometer (152-mile) border with Ukraine.

In contrast to previous raids carried out by small groups of Russian volunteers fighting alongside Ukrainian forces, the incursion into the Kursk region reportedly involved units from several battle-hardened Ukrainian army brigades.

Russian military bloggers reported that Ukrainian mobile groups of several armored vehicles, each of which quickly penetrated dozens of kilometers into Russian territory, bypassing Russian fortifications, and spreading panic throughout the region.

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, said Ukrainian forces had managed to penetrate 35 kilometers (22 miles) deep into the area. “Ukrainian forces appear to be able to use these small armored groups to launch attacks beyond the line of engagement due to the low density of Russian personnel in the border areas,” it said in an analysis of the raid.

Ukrainian forces have used drones extensively to strike Russian military vehicles and deployed electronic warfare assets to suppress Russian drones and disrupt military communications.

While small Ukrainian mobile groups have roamed the area without attempting to consolidate control, other forces have reportedly begun to position themselves around the town of Sudzha, about 10 kilometres (6 miles) from the border, and in some other areas.

How did the Russian army respond?

The Russian forces, caught by surprise by the attack, failed to respond quickly to the incursion. With the bulk of the Russian army engaged in the offensive in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, only a handful of troops were left to protect the Kursk border region. The Russian units along the border were mostly poorly trained conscripts, who were easily overwhelmed by elite Ukrainian units. Some conscripts were taken prisoner.

The manpower shortage prompted the Russian military command to initially rely on fighter jets and helicopter gunships to try to halt the Ukrainian offensive. According to Russian military bloggers, advancing Ukrainian forces shot down at least one Russian helicopter and damaged another.

Later, Russian reinforcements, including elite special forces units and veterans of the Wagner military company, began arriving in the Kursk region, but have so far failed to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Sudzha and other areas near the border.

Some of the newly arrived troops lacked combat skills and suffered casualties. In one example, a convoy of military trucks carelessly stopped on the side of the road near the fighting zone and came under Ukrainian artillery fire.

The Russian Defense Ministry said Friday that Ukraine had lost 945 soldiers in four days of fighting. The claim could not be independently verified. The ministry did not provide any data on Russian casualties.

What did the Ukrainian authorities say about the incursion?

Ukrainian officials declined to comment on the cross-border raid. In a video address to the nation late Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky avoided directly referring to the fighting in the Kursk region. But he said that “Russia brought war to our land, and it should feel what it has done.”

Zelensky’s adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said on Thursday that cross-border attacks would make Russia “begin to realize that the war is slowly creeping into Russian territory.” He also suggested that such an operation would improve Kyiv’s position in any future negotiations with Moscow.

“When will it be possible to have a negotiation process in a way that we can push them or get something from them? Only when the war does not go according to their scenarios,” he said.

What did the Kremlin say?

Russian President Vladimir Putin The raid was described as a “large-scale provocation” that included “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential homes and ambulances.”

Russian authorities say at least five civilians, including two ambulance workers, have been killed in a Ukrainian attack on the Kursk region, and nearly 70 others have been wounded.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said the Ukrainian raid underscored the need for Moscow to expand its war aims to seize more Ukrainian territory, including the capital Kyiv, the Black Sea port of Odessa and other major cities.

Russia has declared a federal state of emergency in the Kursk region, giving local authorities more powers to coordinate rapid emergency response. Russian state propaganda has focused on the Kremlin’s efforts to provide aid to displaced residents while downplaying the military’s lack of preparation for the offensive.

What are Ukraine’s goals and how could the situation develop?

By launching the incursion, Kyiv may be aiming to force the Kremlin to divert resources from the eastern Donetsk region, where Russian forces have launched offensives in several sectors and made slow but steady gains, relying on their superiority in firepower.

At a time when Kyiv’s forces are struggling to halt Russia’s advance in the east, the rapid cross-border raid shows Ukraine’s ability to seize the initiative. It also deals a blow to the Kremlin, highlighting its failure to protect the country’s territory and shattering Putin’s narrative that Russia has remained largely unaffected by the hostilities.

But despite initial successes, the push into Russia could deplete some of Ukraine’s most capable units, leaving forces in Donetsk without vital reinforcements.

Trying to establish a permanent presence in the Kursk region could be a challenge for Ukrainian forces, whose supply lines would be vulnerable to Russian fire.

Military analysts say it remains unclear what Ukraine’s operational objectives were and how many forces it sent in the Kursk raid.

“A lot depends on what reserves Ukraine has to throw at the operation, and how quickly the Russian Federation organizes to counter it,” said Michael Kofman, a military analyst at the Carnegie Endowment.