Edwin Diaz C Young Award Chances

This story was excerpted from the Mets Beat Newsletter by Anthony DiComo. To read the full newsletter, click here. And the Subscription To get it regularly in your inbox.

At this point, saying that has become a cliché Edwin Diaz He does things we’ve never seen before. So how about something we have? What are the odds that Diaz, the loyalist, will win the National Cy Young League award?

It is not unprecedented. Nine of the shooters have received the Cy Young Awards, though none since Eric Gagne in 2003. So what factors give relaxed shooters a chance to win?

1. A large group of work
When Mike Marshall became the first loyalist to win Cy in 1974, he did so by appearing in 106 games and scoring 208 1/3 innings. Marshall led the Majors in appearances by a massive margin and amassed more innings than most novice shooters that season. It’s an extreme example, but somewhat bizarre. Of the nine loyalists who won the award, they all made at least 78 innings, four of them went over the century mark, and they all topped the league in any appearances, playoffs, saves or a combination of those stats.

In short, size matters somewhat, and it’s not ideal for Diaz’s chances in Cy Young: He ranks third in the NL in saves and 93 in innings, and is tied for 11th in appearances.

2. Prevailing statistic line
Consider Rollie Fingers’ 1981 campaign. Unlike Marshall, Fingers didn’t amass a huge workload, throwing just 78 rounds in 47 games – both the lowest of any player in Cy Young’s year. But the fingers produced 333 era +, which is one of the best metrics for comparing shooters through the ages. Simply put, it indicates that Fingers was more than three times as effective as the average bowler that season. Among those in AL with as many roles as The Fingers, Dave Righetti was ranked second with a score of 174 ERA+. Not close.

While it is clear that a certain level of dominance is necessary to win the Cy Young award, it is also critical for the softeners, who must do more in fewer rounds to get the attention of those who vote. Given how important cumulative stats like turns and strikes are to voters, palliatives have to produce electronic stumbles that are too thin and stats rare to even count.

This is where Diaz really shines. He could set the all-time record for strike rate with a probability of more than two hits per run, the kind of eye-opening metric that should earn him some votes. His Era+ is 289 and he could soon enter the Fingers region.

3. No novice pitcher separates itself
Looking back at the 1981 season at The Fingers, no AL star won more than 14 games that year. Only one, Dennis Leonard, topped 200 rounds, and was ranked 10th in the AL in the ERA. Rigetti did not qualify for the ERA title. It was won by Sammy Stewart with a score of more than double what the Fingers produced.

When Willie Hernández won both AL Cy Young and MVP in 1984, voters found it difficult to separate the first group that began to coax the contenders apart. Hernandez ended up receiving 12 first-place votes for Sy, while three other shooters (including another loyalist) split the other 16.

When no writer veers away from the statistical package, it opens the door for poor women to receive votes. So stay tuned for Sandy Alcantara, who was a favorite for most of the early times of the season. If Alcantara settles back towards the group, it may create an opportunity.

What does all this mean for Diaz?
Realistically, not much. Not only have the roles of the archetypal savior changed little over the decades, preventing shooters like Diaz from getting any closer to Marshall-like workloads, but voter attitudes have also changed. When evaluating shooters, many voters now consider cumulative statistics such as wins over substitution And the Winning probability added, which is inherently biased against painkillers. (Diaz enters Monday’s play ranked 16th in the NL previously and 15th second.) Finally, presenting the Reliever of the Year in 2014 gave voters less incentive to honor Bullpen residents with Cy Young.

The last time a loyalist ranked above sixth in the Cy Young vote was in 2017, when Kenley Jansen ranked fifth. It’s been 14 years since a loyalist broke through the top three.

It’s a long way of saying that despite Diaz’s dominance, and despite him possibly getting some Cy Young’s votes on the ballot, his chances of winning the prize are slim. that’s good. The Mets understood how valuable he was; They don’t need a plate to prove it.