Analysts believe Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 could bring as many as 4 million new subscribers to Game Pass

With Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 just around the corner (or already upon us depending on your location), analysts have been weighing the potential impact on Xbox Game Pass, with some believing it could bring in as much as $4 million in new members to Microsoft’s subscription service. Albeit at a cost of 6 million sales.

Black Ops 6 will, of course, be the first Call of Duty game to launch on day one on Game Pass Ultimate and PC Game Pass, a move that represents a crucial test for Microsoft’s subscription service strategy following its $69 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard last year. .

The launch of Game Pass for Black Ops 6 will lead to a significant increase in the number of new subscribers, according to analysts Interviewed by GamesIndustry.bizalbeit at the expense of game sales. For example, Wedbush Securities managing director Michael Pachter believes Microsoft will see between three and four million new members following Game Pass’s launch of Black Op 6, although he believes the move could result in a loss of up to 6 million new members. Millions in sales, based on the idea that 25 percent of Game Pass subscribers probably bought the game anyway.

Meanwhile, Ampere’s lead gaming analyst Piers Harding-Rolls was a bit less optimistic about the appeal of Game Pass for Call of Duty: Black Ops 6, telling GamesIndustry.biz that its introduction would likely only increase subscriber numbers by 10 percent in Game Pass Ultimate — the equivalent of roughly 2.5 million members — noting that not all of these will be entirely new users, since some will be upgrading from lower Game Pass tiers.

“Microsoft will trade full premium game sales for a larger, monetizable in-game audience instead,” he continued, adding: “Call of Duty is increasingly becoming a live-service game first and foremost that generates strong in-game monetization.” He noted that this fact alone raises questions about “how.” [Black Ops 6 will be] monetization and whether there is a greater burden on in-game monetization compared to previous entries in the franchise.”

Katan Games’ Dr. Serkan Toto added: “No one knows what Microsoft’s expectations are for Game Pass’s post-launch growth, but if Black Ops 6 doesn’t hit the targets, things could get pretty bleak very quickly. I also wonder if Black Ops 6 will hit the targets.” “. “We will be able to retain subscribers for the long term or if the numbers decline sharply again early next year, after the initial hype has passed.”

As for how the launch of Game Pass for Black Ops 6 will impact PlayStation, given that Sony has traditionally positioned itself as the primary place to play Call of Duty through its previous marketing and exclusivity deals with Activision Blizzard, Harding-Rolls questions the “long-term audience.” On PlayStation it will be significantly disabled.”

“Those who own Xbox and PlayStation consoles may be affected by playing the game on Microsoft devices, but cross-platform play and multi-platform accounts mean this is not necessarily a permanent decision,” he explained.

Expect Microsoft to beat the numbers loudly if Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 proves to be the Game Pass success it hopes for. The company recently shared membership numbers in February – for the first time since 2022 – reporting 34 million “fully paid” subscribers, up from the 25 million members previously announced. As for Black Ops 6 itself, the most interesting thing to come out of its launch so far is that some of its characters are unintentionally turning blue.