Argentine politics looked at itself in Spain’s mirror: News before turning right

Spain’s sudden and deep turn to the right left a series of messages and explanations for Argentine politics that quickly translated into greetings, expressions of concern or indifference from leaders and political leaders on this side of the Atlantic. A linear reading could connect the defeat of the PSOE and the virtual end of Podemos to Kirchnerism, and the victory of the Popular Party to one of change. But there are differences that deserve analysis.

Beyond barriers, the two countries’ politics have open contacts and alignments. Alberto Fernandez Always recognized as a “dear friend”. Pedro Sanchez, the president and main of the Spanish government was defeated this Sunday; when Christina Kirchner appeared in public on several occasions with Pablo IglesiasThe founder of Podemos, in his Senate office last August.

At the same time, relationships between leaders united for change, Mauricio Macri, Horacio Rodriguez Lauretta And Patricia Bullrich, stable and deep with the first line of PP. That is why it is not surprising that the two opposition leaders fighting for the opposition’s presidential nomination were quick to come out to congratulate the victory with some nuances to underline.

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Loretta welcomed Isabel Diaz AyuzoTo the Mayor of the Spanish capital, who presides over the Community of Madrid, Jose Luis Martinez-AlmeidaAnd especially Alberto Nunez Feijo, leader of the PP, had been president of the Xunta de Galicia for 13 years and wanted to remove Pedro Sánchez from the government. Instead, Bulrich said: “Congratulations to the Popular Party and especially Díaz Ayuzo for the great victory against populism. Long Live Freedom”.

It was about political identities but there were also differences in the type of personal leadership each of them exercised. Núñez Feijóo is supported by the PP’s grandsons and is a classic politician, while the leader of the Madrid community represents a more modern and popular style, with charisma and courage, has earned a place in his own right. The big leagues.

The reconciliation between Patricia Bullrich and Díaz Ayuzo was confirmed a few days ago when they exchanged a loving message on Twitter. “We must wage a cultural war against the populism that mortgages our future, on all fronts (…) Spanish citizens living in Argentina must vote for Díaz Ayuzo,” published the Argentine candidate. To which the Spanish replied: “Thank you very much, Patricia! All the best to dear Argentina, we look after them with such affection from Madrid. They are from Spain, the future warning”.

On behalf of Lauretista, Secretary General of Buenos Aires and Foreign Relations, Fernando StrafaceExplained in conversation with infobae The victory of the Popular Party in Spain is really a “victory of good government” and a defeat of “left and right populism”.

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“The PP won because it lost because of Sánchez’s improvisation and lack of a plan. Those who govern well, those who defend freedom, those who have a modern vision of Madrid, who seek to improve economic activity won. And it showed the Popular Party’s ability to renew itself and modernize itself,” affirmed Strafes. .

Macri also plays an important role in that political connection between Spain and Argentina. In fact, he is a member of the Libertad y Democracia Group, along with former Spanish President Mariano Rajoy and dozens of former presidents and political leaders of Ibero-America. Spain’s decision will certainly be debated. The group was formed as a response and counterpoint to the so-called Puebla Group, which brought together former left-wing leaders from Latin America and Spain.

In the case of Vox, which has served as an important partner for the PP to form governments in various autonomous communities, the Argentine connection Javier Miley. In fact, the libertarian leader traveled to Spain last year to attend one of their meetings. Two vox, it leads Santiago AbascalLike Millay, they recognize themselves as part of the same ideological-political lineage, which includes the Brazilian. Jair BolsonaroChile Jose Maria CastAnd American too Donald Trump. They are all known as the “Madrid Forum”.

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There was no public reaction to Pedro Sánchez’s PSOE defeat in regional and municipal elections from the Kirchnerist sphere or from the Frente de Todos. Just indifference or silence. In fact, Alberto Fernandez limited himself to congratulating Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who won the ballot and was re-elected.

Only one pollster’s analysis closer to Kirchnerism came out of that world Artemio Lopez, which warned of “the advance of the right in Spain”. “Disappointment with the Progressive Alliance, which has been pushing traditional neoliberal reforms, particularly in the labor sector, has given new impetus to the Popular Party, which is likely to win the 2023 election in a virtual alliance with the far-right Vox.” expresses.

But the difference between Spain’s panorama and Argentina’s scene, beyond the fact that they celebrate the PP’s victory, the PSOE’s setback and the virtual disappearance of Podemos as their own, is the point of contention here. Two majorities do not come between the blocs, but one-third reject the vote more or less equally.

Facundo Nejamkis, director of Opina Argentina, confirmed this situation in his recent survey on television last night. Asked “which political party would you vote for if elections were held tomorrow”, the responses were: 26% for Frente de Todos, 24% for Change and 24% for Javier Millais’ La Libertad Avanza. “All three are within the margin of error,” the consultant explained in a chat with Infobae.

Christina Kirchner first proposed the structure of a one-third election, where the next election would be defined by “floors” of voter preference, meaning, at a minimum, STEP and the first round rather than who gets majority support.

The Opina Argentina poll estimates Miley is 16 to 42% likely to vote; Rodríguez Larreta between 4% and 33%; Sergio Massa 6 and 35%, Patricia Bullrich 7% and 28%; and Axel Kicillof between 8% and 26%. Beyond the criticisms and disqualifications arising from Together for Change and Frente de Todos, the Miley event remains solid.

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Regardless of the relationship between Argentine and Spanish politicians, analyst and political consultant Daniel Ivoskus confirmed that the elections in Spain left a message that opposition votes against national governments will prevail again. “The main opposition party, in this case the Popular Party – which disappears to the detriment of Ciudadanos – is the one that accumulated votes,” he said.

“What usually dictates a vote is that the other party doesn’t win. And when the rejection is towards a government. “The most appropriate option is to defeat him,” affirmed Ivoskus, adding that the difference with Argentina is that the polarization between PP and PSOE is diluted, given the possible scenario of a third party.

How much the libertarian leader gets in PASO will be key to the October election, the analyst stressed: “If he has more than 20%, he will have a competitive edge that won’t affect the effective vote. Millet now has more votes in the poorer sectors that don’t vote for his right-wing ideas. In fact, what is left and right?” They don’t know that.”

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