China may be upset about North Korea sending soldiers to fight Ukraine

Earlier this month, China and North Korea paid tribute to 75 years of diplomatic relations by reaffirming ties they once described as close “with lips and teeth.”

But North Korea’s decision to send thousands of troops to Russia to fight Ukraine, unveiled this week by Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, will test those ties like never before.

China has been frustrated by the instability that Pyongyang has sown in North Asia with its nuclear weapons program and periodic threats to annihilate South Korea. Now North Korea is igniting a war in Europe, which could deepen a broader confrontation over a global order that pits the United States and its allies against an axis of anti-Western powers led by China and Russia.

China is trying to portray itself as a force for peace and contradicts the United States, which it accuses of trying to wage a new Cold War. The prospect of soldiers from China’s only ally in the treaty fighting Western-backed forces on behalf of one of Beijing’s closest partners undermines this narrative.

Analysts say another concern the Chinese leadership may have is the exchange of military technology from Russia to North Korea in exchange for sending troops. This could encourage North Korea to act more aggressively toward South Korea or Japan and, at the same time, reduce Beijing’s ability to influence the reclusive country even as it relies on China for trade and aid.

North Korea’s provocative behavior has already contributed to the trilateral security alliance between the United States, Japan, and South Korea, which was signed at Camp David last year. The agreement, which China likened to an Asian NATO, heightened Beijing’s feeling of being constrained and besieged by the United States and its allies.

China is now stuck in a compromise. While the West is trying to isolate Russia, China has deepened its trade and diplomatic ties with Moscow since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. It said Beijing may not know how to rein in North Korea’s efforts to help the Kremlin. Victor D. Chaprofessor of government and international affairs at Georgetown University and chair korea At the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

China is stuck between paralysis and incompetence on this matter. “While they indirectly support Russia’s war efforts, they cannot be happy with North Korea’s article,” Mr. Cha said, referring to North Korea’s official name, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea. “There is nothing good for them in this, in the short or long term.”

Questions will remain about whether Beijing had advance knowledge of Pyongyang’s plans, just as speculation continues about whether it had advance knowledge of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

China did not comment on the presence of North Korean soldiers in Russia other than to say that it hopes that all parties to the conflict will calm down and work to reach a political settlement.

At the emerging market summit hosted by Russia on Wednesday, Chinese leader Xi Jinping reiterated this position by calling on countries not to add “fuel to the fire.”

The United States says China can help end the fighting by withdrawing its support for Russia, which includes supplying dual-use technologies — items as diverse as microchips, chemicals or drones that can go into civilian products or weapons — and purchasing massive amounts. Of Russian weapons. oil.