The launch of “Made in China 2025” changed the world. For decades, The Chinese Communist Party “hid its strength and bided its time.”And the US welcomed China’s rise as a welcome boost to the global economy. But in May 2015, Beijing unveiled a 10-year plan to dominate high-value, high-tech sectors with the unspoken goal of destroying American economic dominance. Few realized it at the time, but the plan would change the world’s rule and rising superpowers from cold trading partners. For serious opponents.
In 2019, my Senate office released a report, “Made in China 2025 and the Future of American Industry,” which examined Beijing’s plan and detailed the threats it poses to American security and prosperity. Five years later, as the decade draws to a close, we take stock of China’s progress. The conclusion of our new report: “China has achieved or is about to achieve technological leadership in most of the sectors it has targeted.”
“Made in China 2025” tasked the Chinese state industrial complex with the task of “becoming part of the productive forces” in ten key sectors. Of those ten, China is now the world leader in four. It exports more electric vehicles — and more cars in general — than any other country. It controls more than 80% of the global solar energy supply chain and has completed the world’s first fourth-generation nuclear reactor. In high-speed trains, China boasts a staggering 28,000 kilometers of track. Even more surprising is that China’s shipbuilding capacity – according to US Naval Intelligence – is 200 times that of the US.
In five other areas, Beijing’s industrial policy has exceeded its objectives, but by narrow margins. China Commercial Aircraft Corporation is a disappointment, but the Chinese space industry can compete with the US and Russia. Chinese drone manufacturers are estimated to capture 70% of the US industrial market. Chinese biotech companies are producing innovative drugs and therapies while increasingly dependent on Western capital, technology and talent. The Chinese research and development base for new products is enormous, if not exceptional, and in robotics, Chinese companies are steadily encroaching on the domestic market share of international firms. Finally, microchip makers in Beijing are firmly entrenched amid U.S. export restrictions and a dominant position in the production of so-called legacy chips.
On the other hand, the Chinese agriculture sector did not meet the targets set in 2015. In fact, China’s agricultural trade deficit has widened significantlyThe Chinese Communist Party’s drive toward economic independence from the outside world is a major obstacle. But aside from this failure, any reasonable measure would consider Beijing’s Ten Year Plan a success. Gone are the days when China was the world’s factory for low-quality products. Today it is a force to be reckoned with in the industries defining the 21st century.
Some commentators will dismiss the news because it goes against the popular idea that the Chinese economy is on the brink of collapse, which is the president’s point. Joe Biden revealed in his June interview Time: “There is [en China] A significantly larger population than the majority of Europe’s youth, they are too old to work. And they are racist. …where is it going to grow?” China’s demographic prospects are bleak indeed, and much of the country’s economic strength is supported by debt at more than 180% of its gross domestic product. As Moscow collapsed in 1989, Beijing may collapse under the weight of its own contradictions.
But we should not take that decision for granted. It is very likely that Beijing will continue to advance. After all, there are economic and technological advantages that the Soviet Union never dreamed of. Even if we believe China will no longer pose a threat in the future, it will do nothing to respond to the threat it poses today. The bottom line is that American policymakers cannot afford to be complacent about the largest and most advanced adversary America has ever faced. That was true in 2015, and it will be even truer in 2025. We need an industrial policy of our own to prevent a complete takeover of the US by China in the next decade.
This will require serious investment in sectors critical to our security and prosperity. Equally stringent controls will be needed to energize our stifled and sclerotic manufacturing environment. Keeping subsidized Chinese products at bay and accounting for Chinese companies setting up shop in third countries would require tariffs, restrictions on technology transfer and other trade barriers. Last but not least, this will require strong shields against Chinese espionage and intellectual property theft.
Republican Marco Rubio represents Florida in the US Senate
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