New report focuses on precise history

Updated August 25 with a new report from Mark Gurman.

It’s no secret that the iPhone 16 series is coming soon. But when exactly? The date everyone is looking forward to is the keynote, Apple’s special event when the company will hold a session at the Steve Jobs Theater, part of its Apple Park headquarters in Cupertino, California. The latest report seems to confirm that date. Or is it? I have questions.

I already wrote that I’m convinced that the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max will go on sale on Friday, September 20. “Apple Inc. is planning to hold its biggest product launch event of the year on September 10, when the company will unveil its latest iPhones, Watches, and AirPods, according to people familiar with the situation,” the report says. Mark Gurman of Bloomberg.

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This seems likely, but I think other dates are still on the table. Gorman has since posted comments on X that make me think September 10th isn’t a firm date. Alarm bells started ringing for me when I realized it would clash with the first televised presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Frankly, that’s sure to dominate the news cycle all day and into the next. Might Apple be willing to reschedule? And if so, when?

Since September 11th is a date that Apple always avoids, there are two other possible dates this week: Monday, September 9th and Thursday, September 12th.

Apple reserves its Monday keynotes for just one time a year, its WWDC conference in June. Does the controversy surrounding it mean it’s making an exception this year?

As for Thursday, Gorman just said on X“Apple has scheduled an extraordinary, mandatory employee meeting at all Apple retail stores on the evening of September 12 or the morning of September 13. This will be a week before the iPhone 16 launch — but pre-launch meetings are typically held on Sundays, not during the week.”

In my opinion, this makes September 12th seem like a very tight date for a keynote. In fact, given that Apple is moving up the date of its employee meeting, it suggests that it may move up the date of the keynote as well. I’m leaning toward Monday, September 9th as a strong possibility — though I realize I’m on my own here.

“While the date has not yet been announced, the company is preparing for that date, which falls on Tuesday, according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the plans are private. The phones will be unveiled and go on sale on Sept. 20, in line with Apple’s usual approach in recent years,” Gurman continued.

I should add that in conversations with Apple over the years I’ve heard the company say it hates being predictable. Numerous reports suggest that Apple is on schedule, or even ahead, with iPhone production, which also suggests that things could be coming sooner this year.

I keep coming back to the big televised presidential debate scheduled for Tuesday, September 10, and how Apple might want to avoid clashing with it.

I don’t think the previous Tuesday, September 3, is in play, but I wouldn’t rule out Monday, September 9. Does that mean the product will go on sale on Friday, September 13? That may just be optimistic thinking on my part.

My best guess: Gorman could be right, and the keynote will be delivered at 10 a.m. PT on Tuesday, September 10, at the Steve Jobs Theater in Cupertino, but Monday, September 9, is a possibility. The presidential debate is likely to influence Apple’s decisions. Either way, pre-orders will likely start on Friday, September 13, and iPhones will be in customers’ hands on Friday, September 20.

More as we have.

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