Florida Governor Ron DeSantis now trails Donald Trump by just 9 percentage points in a hypothetical head-to-head match for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, according to New poll for Yahoo News / YouGov The only single-digit gap between the two potential rivals in any major national survey to date.
In a stark indication of the former president’s weakness — and a possible warning that his deputy-like grip on the GOP base is waning — fewer than half of registered voters who identify as Republicans or independents who are Republican-leaning said they would choose Trump (45). %) more than DeSantis. 36% said they would choose DeSantis, while 18% said they weren’t sure yet.
Meanwhile, President Biden continues to struggle between registered Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents — less than a third (32%) say they would support him over Vice President Kamala Harris (24%), in a theory-single contest.
A full 40% – a clear majority – say they are not sure who to vote for. And while it’s extraordinarily unlikely that Harris would challenge Biden for the Democratic nomination, the president’s poor numbers in such a scenario underscore his dwindling popularity — even among his party base.
Until recently, the common belief was that the 2024 presidential election was shaping up as a rematch between Biden and Trump. This may be the most likely scenario. But with Biden’s popularity still waning amid rising inflation — and as in the January 6 select committee — sharpens the possibility of criminal charges being brought against Trump – Members of both sides began to whisper about alternatives.
Republicans searching for a replacement for Trump have largely focused on DeSantis, who He clearly didn’t ask for Trump’s endorsement in his Florida re-election race. DeSantis is likely to win in November ahead of a possible presidential run in 2024.
On the other hand, the left was less thoughtful in its speculation – in part because Biden, Both public and privateHe insisted repeatedly that he would run for a second term. But given the president’s advanced age (he will turn 82 shortly after the next presidential election) and low approval ratings, Many national ports They posted recent stories about Democrats Emerging interest in a kind of plan B.
“Saying that our country is on the right track would blatantly deviate from reality,” said Steve Simonides, a Democratic National Committee member from Miami. He told the New York Times, — adding that Biden “should announce his intent not to seek re-election on the 24th immediately after the midterm elections.”
The survey of 1,630 American adults, conducted June 24-27, confirms Simonides’ view that no one is pleased with the status quo. In the wake of last Friday’s dramatic Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, only 15% of Americans now say the country is “generally heading in the right direction” — down 6 points from the previous Yahoo News/YouGov poll and the lowest reading in the last two and a half years. Nearly three-quarters of Americans (73%) think the country is “on the wrong track.”
Perhaps not surprisingly, few Americans say Biden (22%) or Trump (30%) should run in 2024.
Once again, Biden is in a worse position with his party than Trump. After the court’s decision in Roe’s case, “right direction” responses erupted among Democrats, dropping from 40% to 27% over the past two weeks as “wrong path” responses rose from 46% to 63%. Nearly two-thirds of Democrats now believe the US is ‘on the wrong track’. Even when their party controls Congress and the White House is worrisome to the president.
In contrast, a third of Democrats and smaller Democrats (33%) want Biden to run again; A larger share (42%) no. Of the latter group, three-quarters of the entirety chose “He’s too old” as the reason for not running Biden in 2024.
However, there is no consensus among Democrats when it comes to who should succeed Biden. The likely Democratic presidential candidate, California Governor Gavin Newsom lavished with press attention In recent weeks, though, he insisted he had no ambitions in the White House. (in An interview with Yahoo News earlier this yearNewsom said that Harris, his “old friend” and fellow Californian, “is next in line” if Biden steps aside.)
But as with Harris, a significant number of Democrats (40%) say they are not sure who they would prefer in a hypothetical showdown between Biden (37%) and Newsom (17%).
Republicans and Republicans do not yet express the same level of uncertainty about Trump that Democrats feel about Biden; The majority of GOP voters (54%) still say he should run for re-election. But his numbers against DeSantis suggest his support may fall.
Even at this early stage, DeSantis is ahead of Trump (within a margin of error) among several major demographic groups, including Republican-leaning independents (2 points), seniors (by 4 points), and those who earn between $50,000 and $100,000 in the year. (in the amount of 5 points) and those who earn more than $100,000 per year (in the amount of 3 points). It’s a brilliant show of a statewide politician who just four years ago was an obscure member of Congress in an uphill battle to become Florida’s governor.
In contrast, former Vice President Mike Pence, another potential challenger in 2024, lags Trump by a staggering 47 percentage points – 18% to 65% – among registered voters who are considered Republican or independents leaning Republican. In other words, the single-digit gap between Trump and Diantes is as much a sign of the ruler’s strength as it is a sign of the former president’s weakness.
Despite the president’s low numbers — only 38% of Americans approve of the job he does — both DeSantis and Trump currently trail Biden by three points among registered voters in a general election match. They are marginally close to Harris or Newsom, but not enough to escape a statistical tie.
The Yahoo News Poll was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,630 US adults interviewed online from June 24 to 27, 2022. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, ethnicity, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the US Census Bureau , as well as the 2020 presidential vote (or non-vote) and voter registration status. Respondents were selected from the YouGov subscription panel to be representative of all adults in the United States. The error rate was 2.9%.
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