4 hours ago
New Zealand’s inflation expectations fell to their lowest level in two years in the fourth quarter
New Zealand’s inflation expectations fell to their lowest level in two years in the fourth quarter, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced Show poll.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s two-year inflation forecast, roughly viewed as the time frame in which the central bank’s monetary policy actions will translate into prices, fell to 2.76% from 2.83% in the previous quarter ending in September.
Annual price increases for next year were expected to fall to 3.60%, from 4.17% previously.
One-year annual wage inflation expectations were 4.43%, down from 5.04% in the third quarter, while two-year annual wage inflation expectations were 3.53%, down from 3.66% in the last quarter.
The survey highlights that the central bank’s interest rate hike cycle has shown signs of reducing price pressures. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is scheduled to hold its next policy meeting on November 29.
– Shreyashi Sanyal
7 hours ago
Business sentiment improved in Japan after a Reuters Tankan survey showed a rise in November
Confidence rose among major Japanese manufacturers in November, According to a Reuters Tankan pollwhich measures business sentiment among major Japanese companies.
This is the first time the index has improved since August, while the mood of the services sector rose for the second month.
The Manufacturers’ Sentiment Index rose to +6 in November from +4 in October, and the Services Sector Index was at +27 above +24 last month.
The survey highlighted an incomplete economic recovery and a difficult outlook for Japanese manufacturers.
This also reflects a similar improvement seen in the Bank of Japan’s closely watched quarterly Tankan survey.
A positive number means that the number of optimistic participants exceeds the number of pessimists, and vice versa.
– Shreyashi Sanyal
7 hours ago
CNBC Pro: These are the stocks that will benefit — and lose — from the wellness trend, says Morgan Stanley
From nutrition to beauty, there is a “global shift toward wellness” happening — not just among consumers but also among governments, says Morgan Stanley.
The investment bank noted that the Covid-19 pandemic was a big factor behind the increased focus on weight and its effects on health, although it added that wellness goes beyond just weight loss and also includes fitness, nutrition, appearance, sleep and alertness.
CNBC Pro takes a look at the stocks that Morgan Stanley says will be affected — both positively and negatively.
Subscribers can read more here.
16 hours ago
CNBC Pro: ‘The gift that keeps on giving’: Morgan Stanley loves the memory sector and picks its best stocks
Technology has been a dominant theme this year, and one sector in particular stands out for Morgan Stanley: the memory sector.
Describing it as “the gift that keeps on giving,” the investment bank notes that “the sector’s pricing power is now among the best in technology, and is still in the early recovery phase.”
The bank reveals its ‘top picks’ and ‘favorite plays’.
CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.
– Amala Balakrishner
19 hours ago
HSBC says soft landing could fuel 15% rally in global stocks
Global stocks appear poised for a big rally in the new year if central banks start easing monetary policy and the Federal Reserve can make a soft landing, according to HSBC.
“We expect global equity markets to rise and forecast a 15% rise by the end of 2024,” Alastair Bender said in a note to clients. “But against the backdrop of slowing economic growth and declining interest rates, we believe market breadth will increasingly narrow, with a large proportion of the market at risk, while US outperformance is likely to continue.”
He noted that in recent instances in which the Fed engineered a soft landing, the S&P 500 rose 22% on average between a pause in price rises and six months after the Fed began cutting interest rates.
Given this setup, Bender favors technology and consumer discretionary sectors, believing the risks appear better priced after the recent pullback in stocks.
17 hours ago
The Fed’s Goolsbee says a “golden path” is still possible
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday that a soft landing remains on the table as the central bank seeks to combat inflation without significantly damaging the economy.
“Because of some of the strangeness of this moment, there is a possibility for a golden path…that we get inflation down without recession,” Goolsby said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Goolsby said the decline in price pressures could equal the fastest decline in inflation in the last century.
– Yun Lee
12 hours ago
The price of US crude fell to less than $78 per barrel, recording the lowest level since July
US crude prices fell by about 4% to their lowest level since July, as weak economic data overshadowed fears that the war between Israel and Hamas could turn into a broader regional conflict.
West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.09, or 3.82%, to $77.73 per barrel, while Brent crude fell $3.19, or 3.75%, to $81.99 per barrel, both at their lowest prices since July.
This decline came after China’s exports fell more than expected in October, indicating a decline in global demand.
— Spencer Kimball
11 hours ago
Wolf Research says the market rally may be fleeting
Rob Ginsberg, a strategist at Wolfe Research, noted that the early November rally may soon stall, if trading action earlier in the year is any indication.
“Every rally since the July peak was halted before hitting a new one-month high, before moving to a new one-month low…the definition of a downtrend,” Ginsberg said.
He certainly also pointed out that some momentum indicators “were reflected positively on all indicators (last week), and today we see this confirmed at the stock level.”
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