Tropical turbulence in the Caribbean shows better regulation Wednesday afternoon and could soon be classified as Tropical Storm Bonny later today, according to the National Hurricane Center.
“However, low cloud motions from high-resolution visible satellite imagery and Curacao radar observations indicate that the system still does not have a closed rotation,” said Richard Bash, a cyclone specialist at NHC. “Some strengthening appears to be possible, but interaction with the South American landmass is likely to limit intensification for the next day or so.”
National Psychic Aircraft & Go Hunter is scheduled to conduct an investigation this afternoon. It can well define the closed circulation and describe the disturbance as a tropical storm. Forecasts show slight storm strength, but no strong intensification until the end of this week as it approaches the southwestern Caribbean, where the system could become the first hurricane of the season.
Heavy rain and tropical storm winds are likely to start late night and into Thursday morning for the Windward Islands, parts of northern Venezuela and northern Colombia for what meteorologists call a possible Tropical Cyclone 2, the National Hurricane Center said at 2 p.m. Wednesday.
The system is located approximately 85 miles east-southeast of Curacao, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph moving west at 24 mph, as of the 2 p.m. update. And while the system has remained disorganized, hurricane specialists suspect it may change over the next 12 hours.
“One of the reasons the system hasn’t been able to shut down circulation so far is because the speed is too high,” Blake said. But models show the turbulence is stable in the evening. After that, the system should stop condensing for two days. By Friday, Blake said, he could be jumping again.
As of 2 p.m., a tropical storm warning has been issued for Trinidad and Tobago; Grenada and its dependencies and parts of the Colombian coast. As it continues west, the system is expected to be near or above Nicaragua on Friday night.
The system has tropical gale force winds that extend outward up to 60 miles from the center of the system. If named, it would be Tropical Storm Bonnie. The NHC gives it a 90% chance of forming in the next five days.
“On the forecast track, the system will pass near the southern Caribbean and the northern coast of Venezuela today, near the Guajira Peninsula in Colombia early Thursday, and over the southwestern Caribbean on Friday,” the NHC.
Meteorologists are also watching for two other disturbances that have potential to become a tropical system.
The turbulence zone increased rainfall and thunderstorms overnight and over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Further development is possible, but the system is currently still unregulated. The NHC gives it a 40% chance of forming in a tropical system in the next two to five days as it slowly drifts westward through the northern Gulf of Mexico and toward Texas. It is expected to move inside Texas Thursday.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter has been deployed to investigate the turbulence further.
“It could become a short-lived tropical depression near the coast before moving inland,” the NHC said. “Regardless of development, heavy rain will be possible along parts of the Texas coast later this week.”
Also, a tropical wave over the tropical mid-Atlantic Ocean produces unregulated showers and thunderstorms. The wave is expected to touch another tropical wave later this week and could develop. The NHC gave the wave a 10% chance of becoming a depression in the next two days and 30% in the next five days.
If any of the systems are developed, it would be the second system of the season after Tropical Storm Alex, which dumped nearly one foot of rain over parts of Florida earlier this month.
After Bonnie, the next names will be Colin and Danielle.
A tropical system can be called a tropical depression without becoming a tropical storm condition. It was not named until the system withstands winds of 39 mph and was not named a hurricane until it withstands winds of 74 mph.
The 2022 season runs from June 1 to November. The year is expected to be another 30 years above normal for storms following the 30 designated storms for 2020 and 21 of 2021.
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