Colombia: An unresolved division in the second round | Comment

Before the victory of the Left, the main outcome of the May 29 elections is predicted Fatigue of Euripism’s political cycleIt was established by former President Alvaro Eurப்b when he came to power in 2002 and, two decades later, became the main axis of Colombia’s internal and external policy.

In this way, for the first time two candidates have approached the ballot. Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernandez, Not identified with Uribismo, and its official representative Federico “Figo” Gutierrez did not reach third place with 24%. This is the worst defeat for the ruling party and the current president, Ivan Duque.

Adolf Hitler’s “false” defense when trying to elevate the image of Albert Einstein, criticism of the role of women in politics and everyday life, and verbal (and physical) violence against opponents. Hernandez’s controversy and public outcry began to escalate until a month ago when the rise of Guterres, an outsider in Colombian politics and the ruling party, stopped.

Characterization, however, would be reductionist Hernandez Simply “populist”. However, his conservative thinking (and reactionary at various points) confronting Colombia’s current political agenda is fundamental here. With Strong anchor in media and social networksThe so-called “Colombian Trump” can, in principle, win by adding the votes of his former rival, Guterres. Thus becoming the official candidate of the establishment (At the same time he can be weakened by being a representative of the political class he claims to be critical of).

For his part, Gustavo Pedro achieved what no left-wing candidate in Colombia’s entire history has achieved: An exclusive political note, Its appeal goes beyond a traditional working class or agrarian class and, instead, challenges the community mobilized in the struggles of recent years.

His attempt to win the second round was undoubtedly more complicated than Hernandez’s: he faced difficulties in garnering votes from other candidates and, as a guarantee of victory, raised the chances of a million voters more than he had been there. May 29.

Without “opposition systems” (a term used to misrepresent both candidates), what would actually be at risk in the second round would be the type of electoral conflict against the establishment that was fully identified with Europe in the electoral defeat. Find a way to strengthen yourself and face the changes that are coming.

Hernandez, on the other hand, will have to face enormous challenges in the face of the elites and regional oligarchy if he seeks the expansion and integration of external sectors such as the one he represents.

Three questions at the end:

At a new stage in Colombian political life, it is already known that no representative of this stream will have access to government, so what is the potential for Euripismo to restructure itself?

In this sense, the fantasy that Euripismo will be in opposition again (which happened during the Santos government, especially since the signing of peace agreements), is that Hernandez will have a fluid conversation at the event. Available to the government.

If Pedro wins the second round, How can a foreign policy that has been established for more than a century be based on unconditional agreement with the United States be considered?

Undoubtedly, questions arise, in principle, Regarding Colombia’s membership in NATOWashington’s billionaire economic support for the fight against drug trafficking, etc.

If Hernandez wins, how will he be able to assert his own personality against the 40% who have chosen radical change in Colombian politics, and put its institutionality to the test in the past protests of 2020 and especially 2021? ?

Regardless of who wins the June 19 election, it is clear that conflicts across the Colombian community will intensify the conflict situation between the two candidates. Government.

Daniel Gersfeld holds a PhD in Latin American Studies (UNAM). Researcher CONICET-Torcuato di Tella University.