With a new corona virus crisis on their shoulders (more than 33,000 cases and about 270 deaths a day), the National Health Service is on the verge of overflowing International spread And winter, with blatant accusations Corruption A Conservative deputy in his government last week prompted him to resign, Boris Johnson At the end of the climate summit, he faces the worst wars: the possible breakdown of Brexit, the weakest partition agreement signed with the EU in 2019.
The economic impact of this gap will affect the EU, but it will also be catastrophic for the UK. According to the Budget Office, an autonomous government body, the UK will lose 4% of its GDP due to Brexit, more than double the economic impact of Govt. In the first six months of this year, British exports to the continent, the world’s main trading partner, fell 40.7%, while imports fell 28.8%. These losses occurred with the deal in force: in a trade war, the outcome would inevitably be far worse. And the rhetoric of the negotiations is fiery, especially in that The British had a sort of Cold War with two key members of the European camp, the Republic of France and Ireland.
With France Is the trigger of ancestral rivalry and distrust Fishing. “Either the UK respects the signing or we will take action,” Macron warned, adding that the government would face elections in five months. France is already active. Since the beginning of the year, its border with the United Kingdom has been a hell of a bureaucratic delay, Inevitable due to Brexit but too heavy and too complicated due to accumulating bilateral and rhetorical differences. Beyond who or how everything started, war is being raised. British President Lis Truss recently warned that France should stop such practices or “respond to them using the terms of the agreement.”
One of those mechanisms is Article 16 of the Code of Conduct for Ireland, which deals with thorny issues, especially as a special section of the Brexit Agreement. Article 16 allows special measures to be taken to neutralize aspects of the Agreement if they deem it applicable “to economic, social or environmental issues and to the diversification of business”. But its calling is not risk-free, it is not “risk-free”. The Prime Minister of the Republic of Ireland, Taoiasech (Chief) Michel Martin, has warned the Boris Johnson government that if the United Kingdom uses Article 16 of the Code of Conduct for Northern Ireland, “the Brexit agreement is entirely possible. Suspended or falling.”
For economic purposes, Northern Ireland is still governed by EU economic rules, which establish a subtle but insurmountable border with other parts of the United Kingdom: British products must pass customs controls to enter Northern Ireland. There it spreads to other parts of the Republic and the EU.
The purpose of this protocol was to prevent the establishment of a land border with security levels between the North and the Republic, one of which was banned in the 1998 peace treaty and was crucial in ending decades of conflict with more than 3,000 deaths. Without a protocol, it would be necessary to return to the land border to control the products in circulation between the Republic and Northern Ireland. As the UK ceases to have the special status granted by Brexit for bilateral trade, the real economic massacre for the British, who trade with the EU as a third country, will impose higher taxes on almost all goods, almost half of its products from Europe.
But in addition to the economy, there are the 1998 peace agreements, which put an end to decades of conflict, which killed more than 3,000 people. Unsatisfactorily, two buses have been set on fire near Belfast in recent weeks and there have been clashes and injuries. Northern Protestants feel that Britain is ready to betray them and leave them in the hands of the Europeans. History tells. In the Civil War at the beginning of the last century, which ended with the partition of the island, the Northern Protestants suspected that they were ready to drop the crown of their own destiny.
What would a man with a yellow hat do?
At the end of the climate summit, Boris Johnson missed a golden opportunity to divert public opinion. These are internal problems (Govt, corruption, economy) and external (Brexit and EU). What will he do? As always, Johnson believes that the best defense is to divert public opinion by attacking a foreign, European, Russian or Arab target on the front line (Argentina is far behind in this table).
Representatives of both parties resumed three-week talks on Friday, and the government threatened to inform its European envoy, Maros Shefkov, about the implementation of Section 16 at the request of British envoy David Frost, Johnson and large sections of the party. The EU has warned that the answer will be very difficult, but the best cards in hand are: Suspend the Brexit deal.
Under Brexit rules, there is room for breathing into this dire situation that opens up the possibility of negotiations: the EU must pay 12 months in advance to implement the suspension of the agreement. But its impact has long been known, and among other things, it reverses the functioning of all business planning, labor markets and value chains. Deportation of European truckers Carrying goods back and forth between continent and island delays the delivery of perishable goods, but industrial components, characteristic of this century’s globalized production, delay the “timely delivery” process. All sectors of the economy are affected. Shane Brennan, president of the Cold Chain Federation, said that if the current deterioration in relations deepens, it will sacrifice the entire industry “with a virtual ban on exporting British food.”
People feel it too. Delays since the implementation of Brexit at the beginning of the year have affected deliveries: first slowly, then at increasing speeds.. In the middle of the year, empty shelves began to appear in supermarkets Contradictory posters from the public saying “You are not in Venezuela or Cuba: you are in the UK”. This happens not only in the warehouse in the neighborhood, but also in large chains. The show is not limited to the capital. It happens in the north of the country, in Wales, in Northern Ireland.
In comparison, although the fishing issue has erupted politically, it remains economically indifferent. Until 2026, Brexit granted French fishermen a license to fish between 6 and 12 miles off their coasts. The disagreement is what documents should be presented to prove this right: this disagreement has escalated into a rhetorical war between the parties, which is not easy to resolve because Brexit is a Johnson’s workhorse (in the year behind Labor today) and Macron is at risk of re – election.
Will all this end in a diplomatic and trade war before Christmas? From New Year’s Eve greetings between neighbors for a lifetime, a lot has happened. Nothing can be ruled out. Brexit breakdown seems more irreparable than ever.
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