Dollar today: Blue is rising and country risk is approaching the 3000 point barrier

To try to prevent the dollar’s rise, calculated on liquidation (CCL) marking a new historic high in recent days, Yesterday the Central Bank (BCRA) further tightened the exchange rate for corporates. With CDIRs, negotiable obligations and new restrictions on holding cryptocurrencies, economists point to a move It “forces” the financial exchange rate back, instead, it puts pressure on the other: blue.

Earlier in the day, small trees on Florida Street sold US bills for $350, a new historical nominal record. However, after 1:00 p.m., the reference price for the informal dollar remains at $343.. They are $6 higher than yesterday (+1.8%).

“Through the new actions of the central government, they are going to force the sale of the underlying assets used in the operations of different parallel equity dollars and get the demand for them, because they have tightened the limits of their holdings and the conditions for accessing them. With the aim of forcing a reduction in the exchange rates of those parallels. In other words, break the market a little more to force losses by deepening the stock through more division.. That’s why today we should see blue continue to rise, underlying assets to tighten and parallel equity market rates to force easing,” said Gabriel Camano, economist at Ledesma Consulting.

If anything has been characteristic of this week, it has been the strong rally recorded by the blue-chip dollar. Despite falling $2 on Monday, the coin has since resumed its upward trajectory: $12 on Tuesday, $16 on Wednesday, $20 on Thursday and $6 more today. Overall, it’s up $52 (+17.8%) compared to last Friday. So far in July, they are already at $104 (+43.5%).

Yesterday, the government announced to take part of the informal offer Foreign tourists Exchange up to US$5,000 at MEP exchange rate. To Manuel Carpintero, portfolio manager at Nash Inversions, “The impact of this move on prices will probably be minimal.”

Conversely, restricting access to CDIRs to importers would reduce pressure on CCL in the short term, but it would not create major changes, the economist asserted. “These actions are yet another link to the overall regulatory conundrum surrounding the MEP and CCL, which does nothing but continue to attack confidence in the peso.“, perfection.

On the other hand, today the financial exchange rates show some decrease. MEP Dollar, A quote that allows you to avoid the exchange trap by buying and selling securities, It is offered at $318.69. This is a drop of $3 compared to yesterday (-0.9%), an increase of $27 (+9.4%) for the week and almost $71 (+28.3%) for the month.

Calculated with dollar liquidation, Screens appear, allowing dollars to be liquidated legally into bank accounts outside Argentina $322.91, $7 less than yesterday (-2.1%). However, it is up $21 (+7.1%) compared to last Friday and $71 (+27.8%) compared to the last trading day in June.

“The price of the blue dollar and other funds is not indicative. They only reflect the peso’s flight due to political uncertainty. That is, it is the price of rejecting the peso rather than a reference dollar”. Economic consultant considered from LCG. A number of factors pushed up the free exchange rates in July: the change in statistics from the Ministry of Economy, issuance of pesos by the central bank, more exchange controls and inflation threatening to reach triple digits are some of them.

Conversely, the forex market is at the other end Total official exchange rate. This price, which is the reference value of the foreign market and BCRA moves slowly, appears on the screens in $129.75 (+0.1%). In contrast to the blue dollar, The gap is greater than 165%.

Free dollars aren’t the only ones firing: Argentina is also at risk. Added to the days of rising local tensions, external noise and fears of a global recession, the index produced by JP Morgan Approaching the 3,000 basis point barrier.

Today the country risk increased by 113 units to stand at 2951 basis points (+4%). Examining the course so far in July, when Martín Guzmán resigned as economy minister, the JP Morgan index rose 577 points (+24.3%). During the year, it rose to over 1,254 (73.9%).