More noise and less certainty for the government

Emergency measures taken by the Minister of Economy for more than 48 hours Unable to erase the uncertain immediate horizon. Or, worse, they opened up new unknowns and added tension, both economic-financial and political.. At the same time, unexpected additional contradictions emerged within the ruling party. Stabilization remains an elusive noun.

Financial announcements and their effects and immediate effects were further reaffirmed The shortest path for the government to travel. And especially Sergio MassaIts price seemed to follow the price of public bonds, as well as almost a presidential candidate until two weeks ago.

National Vertigo is supersonic, if hovering around the same spot and slightly lower. Now the government is run by both the right and the left. The turmoil in the pensioner stock market reflects the urgency of the situation.

After the dramatic announcement of 102% annual inflation nine days ago, one only needs to count it to understand the context and how hastily the panorama has evolved. In the narrowest and most closed circles of the Ministry of Economy, extreme results were analyzed. Even in the Kirchner universe a forbidden word is mentioned.

The theoretical-practical exercises of the Masista group included the assessment of a set of activities in the center. Anonymous demonetizationIt will not be gradual. Talked up to 30 percent. The idea was abandoned (postponed). At least, for now and voluntarily.

It was analyzed to a point that, to justify it, last Monday Massa’s collaborators were encouraged to compare the possible consequences of what could be considered more than an irresponsible expulsion in traditional electoral terms. They don’t have to do it in public. At the end of that afternoon, they chose to force exchange of dollar titles in the hands of public bodies to reduce the pressure on treasury dollars.

“If we can reach an agreement with employers and unions on prices and wages, which is very difficult, we can move forward with demonetisation.”They said on the fifth floor of the Palacio de Hacienda, on the evening of a hectic start to the week. “It is true that initially, in the first two months, we will have strong inflation, but then we can achieve a sharp drop at the beginning of the electoral process. In June, this will make us competitive again,” Masista officials argued.

By optimistic lucidity, the report cast doubt on the explorers into whose ears it reached. They didn’t think Massa’s optimistic belief could go that far. On the contrary, they considered it Set him up for an all-or-nothing bet or something less severe than threatening his partners. How to transfer bonds in dollars from the account of pensioners.

“It is true that the idea of ​​devaluation was on the table, but, in addition to political reasons, technical reasons also opposed its rejection. Not only would it be difficult to achieve the essential support of hardline Kirchnerism and unions, but technically the time had passed to do so without many dangerous consequences. That’s it Even from the IMF they will not press for further devaluation of the pesoAs they did until two months ago ”, they argue in the economic cabinet.

“With such a lack of reserves and something that could come from a drought, it’s dangerous to depreciate,” explained an official from the Macista group. How about a situation where it would be better to go to the altar of Kirchnerism like the Ansus Sustainability Guarantee Fund?.

The undoubted plasticity which Cristimborism had hitherto shown in endorsing the measures taken by Massa since his inauguration seemed to reach its maximum when the possibility of deflation was examined. In accordance with the agreement with the IMF, the tolerance for adjustments in state salaries, social assistance and pensions, incidental gestures and the organization and friendship with the United States are limited.

Rejecting the (for now) maximum (not maximum) hypothesis, Massa opted for an exchange program for dollar-denominated bonds in the hands of the public sector to ease pressure on exchange rates and calm the rush of banks. They were looking for some insurance for their portfolios sunk in pesos.

Presumably, the threat of devaluation acts as a lubricant for Cristimborismo, making it easier to accept the measure. Despite the symbolic cost, no technical explanation can cut it.

However, the worst did not happen. From right to left, with criticisms and demands raised by almost the entire opposition, with warnings expressed by the IMF (always beneficial with Massa), financial uncertainties were added, which were not resolved in the first 48 hours. The financial dollar fell somewhat, but country risk continued to rise.

“Making a market for the bonds to be sold will take time, it won’t be easy, and there will be a strong fight for the price of those bonds. If they’re worth $25 now, buyers will push even lower. Additionally, in the best cases, these resources are not readily available as they need to be dosed in the market so that they do not depreciate,” a source from the Treasury admitted.

But that’s not all, far from it. Concern about financial situation is one of its most important points. With the brutal fall in income due to drought some rising costs and inflation make it impossible to liquidate them.Given the elevated platform from which it starts.

“Not only do we have to face a pension freeze, but an increase in wages and social spending, which is unthinkable in an election year. On the contrary, we should expect the opposite,” agreed people close to the minister.

Massa and Cristicamporism will be the real crossroads of paths that support their communities today in comfort (or in desperation). It is not easy to imagine a detour to avoid a conflict, and election time is pressing. Bond exchange is only a bridge to continue on the same path.

“A month ago I was worried about politics, now I’m worried about the economy,” Axel Kisillof is heard saying.. It makes a lot of sense.

Either way, politics exacerbates weaknesses. His wife, Massa, took care to make this known in the media. Malena CalmariniThe public went against it Alberto Fernandez Although the President and the Minister acted in a cordial manner, some of his closest collaborators. Psychologists say that fear is always behind anger.

The Minister of Economy is not only punishing against eccentric Antonio AraquerThe president’s chief of advisers has, at one point, been one of the solutions being evaluated for waving the possibility of an exchange rate. He also complains about Fernandez. He sees his hand behind launching the candidacy of his inner enemy Daniel Cioli and the reappearance of his predecessor Martin GuzmanWith some criticism (mild, by the way) of its management.

They agree that Cioli is a plan B in Fernandez’s context if, as expected, he fails to sustain his re-election claims. The support for the ambassador in Brazil, who is already confident and confident touring the country and the media, is becoming heavy and painful for the president. Literature.

“Two Sundays ago when he wanted to get out of the car with the gift box of wines he had brought for the celebration at the La Ñata estate, he exposed a herniated disc that required him to undergo surgery.”, they say at Casa Rosada. No bidding.

It is not easy for Fernández to visualize the possibility of an alternative plan, given the fragmentation and lack of candidates he is striving for by the ruling party, but he remains open to the possibility. “After Sergio’s numbers started getting complicated,” his collaborators agreed.

Those who feel that the president’s vacuous obstinacy further complicates the political and economic situation, and finally the North American president, Joe Biden will get Fernandez next Wednesday A bilateral meeting should be held. What Christina Kirchner couldn’t with Barack Obama, her creature will accomplish, much to her annoyance.. It would be a strong contrast with the photo of the vice president surrounded by retired former heads of state, a strong anti-Americanism and many other problems he joined with the judge of their respective countries.

Biden’s anabolic call at this crucial moment for the government had an immediate effect on La Rosada. If the meeting takes place at the White House next week, Fernández would have filled the album he wanted to use in his campaign, not his autobiography.And it will help you face your inner and outer critics.

His collaborators have already selected top photos with China’s Xi Jinping, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Olaf Scholes (who came to see him), his friend Lula and even Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin. Fernandez is determined to get on with life even when others are struggling. As if there were no reasons for conflict.

Those close to Fernandez expect him to retain his right to re-election for as long as he can. Definitions may be postponed until early May. Another disappointment for Christina Kirchner and La Compora.

On the other hand, the horizon will soon clear in the main opposition alliance. At least partially.

Mauricio Macri’s close aides expect him to announce within a month whether or not he will seek a return to the presidency.. And, at the same time, they make it known that there is very little chance for him to try in this environment. “It’s not because of the electoral potential, which is rising for us, but because of the conditions in which he has to govern to implement what he wants.”They confirm.

Meetings with pro-candidates ending today Meeting With Horacio Rodríguez LarretaListen and join arguments to determine both their own political futures and those of the candidates in their place. The mayor of Buenos Aires needs to make a solid presentation so that the founder of Pro doesn’t make his application difficult..

As reported, if internal chaos starts to sweep, more noise may be added when the government needs more restraint.

As the countdown to the election accelerates, things will not be favorable for the ruling party.