Ukraine: Why no war between US and Russia | Comment

The US government retaliated strongly Deployment of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine. However, despite the threats, so far Joe Biden failed to unite senators around Russia’s sanctions. The main controversy is whether Russia will no longer be allowed as proposed by the Republicans or if they do so after the occupation of Ukraine, the ruling party will encourage.

Confused allies

Democrats suffer from poor governance (with at least 40 percent approval) Republicans insist that astronauts such as Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio find themselves too difficult to confront Russia.. Moreover, the upcoming parliamentary elections on November 8 serve as an incentive for both parties to present themselves as “negotiators” or “punishers”.

The United Kingdom, a traditional ally of the United States, on the other hand, is in a leadership crisis, with a prime minister not holding his own after his parties and meetings were exposed during British isolation.

Boris Johnson wants to confront Putin, but his main opponents in the Labor Party are accusing him of not being the right person to lead the United Kingdom to a new war. In fact, labor does not lean towards peace or dialogue, but rather toward leading the nation into conflict.

Major European countries such as Germany and France and Italy depend on Russian gas supplied through an extensive network of gas pipelines known as Nort Stream II. In the midst of a cold European winter, no one dares to confront the major gas suppliers in the region.

Betting in conversation

Above all, France is committed to negotiations, because the president, Emmanuel Macron is also the President of the European Union (EU) for this semester. Macron wants to consolidate French power in Europe and expel two partners, Biden and Johnson, who do not appear to be in a position to withdraw the conversation now. Of course, we must not forget that the presidential election in France will take place next April, and Macron is considering running for re-election.

As for the EU’s smaller partners, Italy is currently in the process of electing to define its presidency, The Spanish government seems to be sinking into a crisis: PSOE’s at the same time Pedro Sánchez is ready to take part in NATO war operations, Podemos partners have expressed their complete rejection.

Currently, all eyes are on the new government of Germany and the Social Democrats Olaf Scholes. As has been the case since the 19th century, Germany is once again at the center of the scene.

Everyone knows that Germany is the economic machine of the European Union through the dialogue between Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin over the past 16 years. Although Scholz will lead a new government coalition, there is little doubt that the current president will continue on the path shown by his predecessor.

Eastern Europe

At this time, the countries of Eastern Europe (such as Poland) were the main drivers of the conflict with the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Russia. It belongs to the former Soviet Union and historical ties with its neighbors determine whether these countries appear to be Putin’s most bitter rivals to Russia.

Today a military conflict between the United States and the major European powers against Russia is far from on the political map of the region. It would be a very costly war for a moment like this to mark the priority of the political agenda by fighting the epidemic and reactivating the Western economy.

Finally, no one except the United States seems to gamble much with Ukraine: the government Volodimir Zelensky did not create much hope, Even more so because of its lack of response to the economic reforms that have not yet taken place and the level of public corruption far removed from European standards. Many actors certainly do not see the need to include Ukraine in NATO: they think that its integration will be very tedious and, in the long run, could cause imbalance affecting all the countries involved.

How can this crisis be resolved?

Bonding of forces

Given the balance between Washington and Moscow, it would not be strange to reach a kind of intermediate point. Ukraine will not be part of NATO, but rather allow Moscow to strengthen its military, A task that the major Western powers have been engaged in for almost a decade.

Neither Fiden nor Putin, on the other hand, will benefit much from this conflict: they will not be able to expand the scope of their action or add new allies. However, there is one point on which the two agree: Scholes’ general appreciation of New Germany.

In short, this whole conflict is complicating Berlin’s position again not only as a political center but also as the economic axis of the European recovery. The biggest expectation is whether Germany will lean more towards Russia because of the gas supply, or more towards the United States, which shares a greater political culture. Finally, Scholes plays a key role in the survival of the EU, threatened by divisions and separatism.

* Doctorate in Latin American Studies (UNAM). Researcher CONICET-Torcuato di Tella University.