What does it mean if Russia officially declares war on May 9?

(CNN) – Russia may have invaded Ukraine on February 24, but President Vladimir Putin has insisted that one of his troops carry it out.Special military actionInstead of declaring war.

However, Western authorities and analysts They believe it may change on May 9, Russia’s symbol day. A formal declaration of war will be issued on that day, paving the way for Putin to step up his campaign in Ukraine.

What is May 9?

On May 9, “Victory Day“In Russia, it commemorates the country’s victory over the Nazis in 1945.

A military parade is being held in Moscow and Russian leaders are traditionally seen standing in the tomb of Vladimir Lenin in Red Square.

“May 9 is designed to deceive the local public, to intimidate the opposition and to deceive the dictator of the day,” James Nixie, director of the Russia-Eurasia program at Saddam House, told CNN.

Western officials have long hoped that Putin would seize the symbolic significance and campaign value of the day to announce a military record in Ukraine, a major war escalation or both.

The President of Russia has an eye for identity as he launches an invasion of Ukraine the day after Father’s Day, another important military day in Russia.

Is Russia preparing for a mobilization?

According to Oleg Ignatov, a senior Russian analyst at the Crisis Group, a global crisis think tank, Putin has several options at the table. “Declaring war is a very difficult situation,” he said.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky, who did not formally declare war on Russia, imposed martial law on Ukraine when the Russian invasion began in late February.

Another option for Putin is to enact Russia’s mobilization legislation, which could be used to launch general or partial military mobilizations, such as “threat of aggression or direct aggression against the Russian Federation, eruption of armed conflicts directed against the Russian Federation.” .

It will not only mobilize troops, but also allow the government to stop the country’s economy on a wartime basis.

Members of the Russian service drive tanks into the street ahead of a rehearsal for Victory Day military parade in Moscow, Russia on April 28, 2022. (Credit: REUTERS / Maxim Shemetov)

Russian soldiers during a parade rehearsal on April 28. (Credit: REUTERS / Maxim Shemetov)

According to Nixie, Russian forces have lost at least 15,000 troops since the start of the war, and will need reinforcements if Moscow is to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

Ignatov said the mobilization would extend compulsory military service to soldiers currently in the armed forces, call in reservists or bring in military-trained fighters.

But that represents a major threat to the Putin government, he said.

“It will change the whole story of the Kremlin,” Ignatov said, adding that the move would force Putin to acknowledge that the invasion of Ukraine did not go as planned.

“This is a very dangerous decision,” Ignatov added, adding that large-scale mobilization would also damage the already struggling Russian economy.

In addition, the analyst said that this could reduce support for Putin, as some Russians personally support the invasion of Ukraine without wanting to fight.

“If they announce a large-scale mobilization, some will not like it,” Ignatov said.

Putin said it would be possible to pass a mobilization law without officially declaring war on Ukraine.

Ignatov said Putin could impose martial law on Russia, suspend elections and concentrate power in his hands.

It would impose rules such as restrictions on men leaving the country of fighting age, which could prove unpopular, he said.

What else could happen on May 9?

If Putin does not declare war, he may try to make a declaration marking Victory Day.

Other options include the annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, a major push for Odessa in the south, or the declaration of full control over the southern port city of Mariupol.

There are indications that Russia may have planned to declare and annex the southeastern city of Gershon as a “People’s Republic”.

“He (Putin) can declare that the Russian army has won some victories in Ukraine,” Ignatov said. “You can try to use this date to confirm your support.”

However, it is difficult to predict what Russia and its president will do, the analyst added.

“All decisions are made by one man and his two advisers,” Ignatov said.

However, US State Department spokesman Nate Price said Monday that “there is good reason to believe that the Russians will use May 9 more for propaganda purposes.”

“We have seen the Russians redouble their campaign efforts, probably, of course, as a means of diverting attention from their tactical and strategic defeats on the battlefield in Ukraine,” Bryce told a foreign conference on Monday.