When Russia The war began on February 24, when the economy of the world’s largest country did not improve and it worsened with the advent of sanctions. Moscow is one of the best armies in the world, yet all the expenses incurred by the large battalions are financed by gas and oil. Institute of today Vienna International Economic Studies (Wiiw) Explains how a report is published Energy barrier This will help end the invasion.
The report says that the severe sanctions imposed so far by Western countries will only “affect efficiency” Russia To wage war Ukraine In the medium term “, so that Moscow could continue to finance its military offensive for some time. Ban on its energy exports.
Although the Russian central bank was surprised by its foreign exchange reserves in the West, meanwhile, it was able to stabilize the economic situation, according to a study analyzing the impact of the economies of the armed conflict. European union (EU), Russia And Ukraine.
“Strict capital and exchange restrictions, deregulation of banks and the doubling of interest rates by 20% have prevented the financial meltdown,” explains Vasily Astrov, one of the authors of the analysis.
In the Middle Ages, the expert considered it a “possible” war Ukraine “Economically it is too expensive for the occupiers”: wiiw believes gross domestic product (GDP) Russia The deal is between 7% and 15% this year, while inflation will reach 30%.
But without one Prohibition He did not predict that the war would be defeated by energy and, in the short term, monetary problems, before which the shortage of soldiers and weapons could bring to an end something that seemed remote from the presence of nearly 3 million soldiers in Moscow.
“The Russian government still has enough financial space to fund the war in the long run,” Astrov said. The effects of the embargo will make it harder to finance the war in the Middle Ages.
In a potential scenario, high inflation would cause a massive drop in real family income, and therefore, on private consumption Russia.
Currently, industrial production is plagued by supply chain problems due to sanctions and the “massive outflow of Western companies”.
“Announced economic stimulus package Kremlin Coping with the crisis will not solve these problems. ”
The value of the ruble has “almost returned to the pre-war level”, investor confidence has waned and interest rates on loans have risen, he added.
In addition, the expert believes that Moscow will try to offset the losses of all markets in the West with Asia, which, although it does not work, he predicts.
Finally, he explains, the beginning of the war marked the end of 30 years of good relations between Russia and NATO. “Even if sanctions are finally lifted (after the war), February 2022 will be a turning point in Russia’s long-term failure to integrate into the European economy,” he says. Richard Crewson, deputy director of the wiiw and co-author of the study.
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