Western intelligence leaks weaken Ukraine’s position

More than thirty secret documents from NATO and the US – many of them – considered “top secret” have been leaked onto the deep web (dark web) since last February. But Washington’s alarm rose this week when its intelligence agencies discovered the documents had begun circulating on social networks such as Twitter and Telegram.

Pentagon officials confronted with the leak said the information in the documents only exposed the state of the conflict up until last March. However, the Ukrainian Armed Forces admitted it Information about its military capabilities has been revealed, detailing its brigade numbers in anticipation of a Russian counter-offensive that has been underway since early spring, and its capabilities in advanced weaponry, including the latest modern combat vehicles, including LeopardII tanks.

The leaked documents were blocked from networks by military experts in cyber security last Tuesday, but US intelligence sources said the damage was done because the “deep web” could not measure the number of people or systems that accessed them. Therefore, details and information about the ammunition and Ukrainian air defense systems are exposed and create a critical situation for Kiev. At this time, the Pentagon continues to review and verify the significance of the leaked documents. Arrested by FBI Jack Teixeira. A computer scientist working for the Massachusetts National Guard is being investigated for the incident on suspicion of involvement and accomplices in the scheme.

This fact constitutes the most serious military spill affecting the Pentagon and NATO in the past fifteen years, and is a very strong blow to the strategy of the war in Ukraine, which opens up a critical threat in terms of intelligence to President Zelensky’s forces. That exposes its vulnerability and exposes Ukraine’s weaknesses, indicating that it may suffer from a lack of ammunition for its anti-aircraft missile systems, which it exposes in its defense systems.

Experts from the Center for European Policy Analysis declared the leak to be very worrying Because it insulates Ukraine against possible Russian actions and exposes countries that provide aid to that country’s armed forces. On the other hand, the truth shows Ukrainians and Russians that the quality of the information and the evidence from which it was obtained all weaken Ukrainian defenses against future military actions from Moscow.

However, the most serious leak refers to information related to the Ukrainian air defense system. According to a series of documents published in Telegram by an anonymous source in early February, it is indicated that at the rate of use at the time, the stockpile of S-300 anti-aircraft missiles will be exhausted next May. The SA-11 missiles would have already been fully deployed by the first week of April. NATO’s relevance to the mentioned weapons is that they are considered two systems that comprise 90% of Ukraine’s air defenses to counter missile attacks and incursions by Russian air force fighters.

An assessment of the distribution of documents by Moscow propagandists came to light It indicates that Ukraine can only wait a few more weeks against Russian attacks. US intelligence was able to confirm in pro-Russian Telegram groups providing maps of geographic locations where Ukrainian air defense systems are located.

Former US ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, who is now director of the Europe-Asia Strategic Center, said the Ukrainian air defense leak was unfortunate but critical to the country’s safety and security. Herbst told the European press “There is no doubt that concrete damage has been done to the Ukrainian military structure at a time when Ukrainian forces are carrying out major combat efforts.” Although I also pointed outThe damage thus caused would not have been serious or irreparable”.

However, another set of more than a dozen documents was published by Russian bloggers on April 10, and they show in detail the capabilities and deployment of Ukrainian brigades, particularly those fighting in the city of Kharkiv. Three of those qualified documents indicate the number of combat vehicles, personnel carriers, tanks and artillery deployed by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. To all this, Russian intelligence has not commented, although Russian media outlets such as TASS have recently published details of the information, though not the documents it claims to have.

Sources operating unofficial social networks linked to the Ukrainian armed forces denied the nature and severity of the incident, although they suggested that national security leaks may have been caused by the actions of pro-Russian Ukrainian elements. They noted that traitors should be found, but counter-intelligence activity to confuse the enemy should not be ruled out, which “Controlled Leakage and Disinformation Campaign to Confuse Russian Troops” The Ukrainians are fooling Moscow by showing that they are not ready to respond to a fight, forcing Russia to make mistakes.

However, assessing all the possibilities, the leak is a key element of Washington’s attention, as the documents detailing only Ukrainian information would allow Moscow to learn how the Pentagon gathers critical intelligence about Russian military capabilities. A detailed assessment of the Russian military, including troops, but also tanks, artillery and aircraft available for its operations over Ukraine. As such, senior Western intelligence officials no doubt believe that Russian counter-intelligence will lead to a critical strengthening in the security of their communications, which has been seen during more than a year of war. High number of casualties among its top officers on the battlefield.

In the usual weekly communication with reporters last Tuesday, the Pentagon’s military spokesmen refused to comment on the extent and scope of the leaked information: “No comment”, although they responded briefly. depth. This was followed by a brief statement by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, which stated that Defense was working full time to assess the implications and, above all, the breadth and distribution of documents with filtered military information. Use appropriate measures to minimize the impact of the incident, “We are investigating how the incidents occurred, their motive and the problems they may have created. In addition to establishing with certainty who or who is behind the incident”, Refers to the official statement of the Secretary of Defense.

The Pentagon confirmed last week that it was reviewing the document leaks and had handed over a formal criminal investigation to the Justice Department. U.S. officials on Monday declared the investigation a “priority,” though they did not identify how many there were, but one of them drew attention because it inflated the number of Ukrainian soldiers killed in the war and made the number of Russian casualties absurd. Statistics. The latter was shared by Washington with the Ukrainian president’s office, which defined the intelligence leaks as a clear move to “distract attention and create discord” among Western allies.

Ukrainian military officials have asked NATO and Washington to reconsider the way classified information about military operations is shared and the recipients in the future and pointed to a Russian strategy of creating a wedge between those countries that help Ukraine in its fight for independence. liberation of its territory. They also asked the Pentagon to go into the final results of the investigation. Ukrainian intelligence agencies involved in the investigation believe the operation was carried out by Russian spies spread across Western Europe and even within the United States, although they have not said so.

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