Hidden ambitions: What is every force trying to gain from the conflict in Ukraine?

Paris.- Vladimir Putin Themes a la OTAN. He is well aware that the plans of the North Atlantic Organization do not involve Russia or the annexation of Ukraine. His aggressive military gestures on the border between the two countries serve another purpose: like Maternich at the Vienna Congress in 1814-15, The Kremlin leader seeks to create a modernity equal to that of the Holy Alliance in the service of the policy of spheres of influence.. In other words, rewrite post-Cold War history in Europe.

Is it a simple reflection of security or a more ambitious form of revisionism? However, while Moscow defends the dictatorships in Belarus and Kazakhstan against the will of their people, it denies Ukraine the right to freely choose its own destiny.

It is a strategy that involves risks, because Putin is pushing the Ukrainians further and further west with his provocations. They are not – as Russia claims – Westerners confidently advancing their troops in Ukraine, despite the “indirect” agreements with Moscow after the fall of the Soviet Union, which established that Kiev would not join NATO: It is the Ukrainians who are increasingly becoming anti-Russian because of Moscow’s aggressive behavior.

But if the Kremlin leader feels it is sufficient to re-establish his sphere of influence “close to foreign countries” from a military point of view, then the countries concerned are a zone of physical and ideological security that will not deviate from their strategy. Orientations, What do you particularly want to achieve through your threats and gestures?

“Their neighbor in the south, Ukraine, is a Slavic fraternal nation with a common history of a thousand years. It will establish itself in the ‘Western-style’ democratic mold. Ideological pollution, establishing the opposite model at the gates of the motherland”Says British historian Mark Galioti.

Re-creation The Kremlin’s Minimalist Purpose of the Brezhnev Doctrine, imposed by the Soviet Union on Eastern Europe after the 1968 invasion of Czechoslovakia In the name of protecting the pro-Russian people in the east of the country, Kiev must be compelled to recognize its right to interfere in its internal affairs. “As for Moscow, Ukraine will only restore peace Acceptance of limited sovereignty“It wants to facilitate its relations with the European Union (EU) and establish an economic union with it, which is already an attack on the Kremlin,” Galeotti added.

In that “near-foreign” state, Putin tolerates only regimes like his own, increasingly brutal dictatorship. In Belarus, as in Kazakhstan, the Kremlin keeps dictators in power for only one reason: because they remove danger from democracy. In Ukraine, the Russian president wants regime change or at least a change in strategic orientation.

To alleviate the tension, Westerners offered this month The whole European defense, especially the issue of medium-range missiles. But at the end of three days of discussions, the Russians said they were not interested in the issue.

“Moscow wants to organize Yalta Pizza in Europe. In other words, NATO will not annex new countries, to withdraw from that organization from Poland and the Baltic states, and to obtain formal assurances such as suspending Western military cooperation with Ukraine,” analysts Gilles Andreani said. London Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).

These demands, which could not be accepted by the United States and Europe, were put forward as demands by the Kremlin. If it fails, Moscow indirectly threatens to talk weapons. To prove this, Putin announced a campaign “Military-Technical Operations”, The meetings in Geneva, Brussels and Vienna began with the failure of a cyber attack on ten Ukrainian ministries.

This hardening shows itThe Russian president has no intention of making compromises that will allow him to achieve a simple diplomatic victory: Putin dreams of building a better Soviet empire.

For the United States, the situation is not easy. What room for the current president’s maneuver, and when Many Republicans see the Democratic Party as a greater threat to the country than Russia.?

“Under current conditions, the White House can not open two conflicts simultaneously: one with Moscow and the other with Beijing,” writes Jonathan Masters, an expert on the Council on Foreign Relations.

In fact, how Joe Biden manages the Ukrainian crisis will be crucial not only for the region, but also for how his country will be perceived in the immediate future by other parts of the world, and especially by authoritarian regimes. Without being directly involved in the Ukrainian conflict, Chinese President Xi Jinping is scrutinizing the results of the White House. He is also trying to recapture Taiwan and make every effort to prevent the small island from getting closer with the West. If Washington weakens out of wrestling with Moscow, Xi may be motivated to launch a major operation to retake Taiwan, Thus endangering the security and stability of East Asia.

The Biden administration has so far succeeded in merging Confident – Threatening Moscow with severe sanctions – and Diplomacy, To begin negotiations in Geneva. However, no one knows whether he will have the qualities needed to end the crisis.

For their part, Europeans pursuing a policy of sanctions against Moscow have serious difficulties in making themselves heard in a world of increasing geopolitical significance. However, the Black – rather than France and Germany – will help calm the tension. The two countries that were most hostile to NATO expansion in Ukraine are the progenitors of the Minsk agreements. Signed on September 5, 2014, the agreement reached an immediate ceasefire in the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine, although it failed in its aim to put an end to all further fighting in the region.

Paris and Berlin So the United States can help revive that process in the hope of overcoming the worst international crisis since the end of the Cold War.

But nothing in Europe is easy. Emmanuel Macron and the new German Chancellor Olaf Scholes – like his predecessor Angela Merkel – are proposing a “restoration” with Moscow, defending the principle of an open and open dialogue, and rejecting any of the EU capitals – especially in the east of the continent. It wants to open up to Russia and continue to provide its security to the United States and NATO.