Sheinbaum ended his campaign in front of a crowd of | At El Zócalo he pledged to continue Lopez Obrador’s administration in Mexico

From Mexico City

Cuarta is a presidential candidate of transformation, scientist and former head of the Mexico City government Claudia SheinbaumEnded his election campaign facing this Wednesday Election on Sunday A with Massive event at the traditional El ZócaloA historic plaza located in the heart of Mexico City, in front of the cathedral.

“I am determined to protect the legacy of President López Obrador” declared MORENA is running at the head of a center-left coalition formed by the Workers’ Party (PT) and the Green Ecology Party of Mexico (PVEM).

“Neoliberalism backfires in Mexico” The president said, his supporters shouted “President!” “Leader!”. Scheinbaum also said Mexicans do not want to return to the past because “Mexican humanism” goes hand-in-hand with social justice.

Affirmations

There is no electoral war in Mexico. All polls, whether local or overseas, predict a comfortable victory for Sheinbaum. Conservative predictions are similar to those recently made in the paper Country Predicted from Spain 18 percentage points ahead of its immediate competitor, with some consultancies extending this margin to 32 points.

Either way, the second and farthest Xochitl Galvez, the candidate of a conservative alliance between the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the National Action Party (PAN) and the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD). Gálvez, Senator from the PAN Bench, He chose to present himself to citizens as an “independent candidate” who sought to show a certain autonomy compared to the worn-out traditional parties. truly, The crisis was so profound that for the first time the PRI, the party that shaped the entire Mexican 20th century, did not have its own candidate. After a rocky campaign opposed by factions of his own coalition and several missteps in three presidential debates, Gálvez failed to become a competitive choice.

Thirdly, according to the polls, there will be Jorge Alvarez Maynes, the candidate of Movement for Citizens (MC). Máynez, a former member of the PRI and PRD, aims to intervene in polarized elections. Exaggeration of progressive speech, and the votes of the young and perhaps the disaffected are most contentious of all. On May 22, his campaign took a tragic turn when the stage where an event starring him was being held in the state of Nuevo León was blown up, killing nine and injuring more than 120.

Mexico is one of the few countries in the region Not thinking about the second round Election, hence the scheduled election day this Sunday, the supreme executive will be elected by a simple majority. 98.9 million voters are invited to vote. If this scenario plays out, Scheinbaum could get a higher percentage than Heinebaum achieved. Andrés Manuel López Obrador In 2018. According to the constitution, the incumbent president cannot run for a new six-year term. Also, AMLO, as he is popularly known, has repeatedly promised to retire from all political activities at the end of his term.

At the time of closing this note, a few hours after the election ban came into effect, Sheinbuam was taking a large bath in El Zocalo. Gálvez did the same in northern MontereyOne of the most important cities of the country.

Uncertainty

So far so predictable. However, in these elections – the largest in history, with 20,708 posts at stake – Mexico City’s head of government, governors of eight states and representatives of both houses of Congress will be elected, renewing its 128 senatorial offices and 500 representatives.

A progressive bastion for 27 years, Mexico City’s scene is national. There, the official candidate — and favorite — Clara Brugada, a native of the urban social movement and a three-time mayor of Istabalaba, the capital’s most populous district. Most polls put Brugada more than 10 points ahead of his immediate rival Santiago Tabota, the PRI-PAN-PRD candidate. Given the huge distance separating Scheinbaum from Galvez, the opposition party structure has focused on the capital, saying it will compete inch by inch. Its victory – they imagine – could offset an almost certain defeat at the national level, project an image of PAN opposition at the national level and – perhaps – resolve the worst space leadership crisis.

A major battle will take place at the legislative level. Not so much because of who gets a majority (it doesn’t matter that Morena and her allies retain control of both chambers), but because López Obrador has proposed 20 changes to the constitution to preserve some social policies developed over a six-year term and advance other measures that require a qualified majority. In the 2021 assembly elections, the ruling party lost majority in the House of Representatives.

Another open situation is controversy States. Of the eight at risk, five are led by MORENA, two by PAN and one by MC.. Here too there is an atmosphere of official belief. Tabasco, Chiapas, Puebla and Veracruz will be in their hands, without any trouble. Also, the ruling party is hoping to win Yucatán, a historic PAN stronghold, and dreams of taking Jalisco from the MC in addition to contesting Guanajuato, with more remote probabilities. For its part, the opposition is focusing its efforts on Morelos, the only place where Morena can be impeached.

But the state X-ray is only interesting for its political composition, and in any case the ruling coalition has a majority of districts (currently ruling 22 out of 32), keeping the national map purple.

Political violence

What is more relevant is what local and state election processes show The persistence of political violence is a scourge that continues to plague a country with still alarming crime rates. So far in the campaign, they are, with different estimates depending on whether they come from state or non-state sources Between 15 and 40 candidates were killed. On the other hand, according to the Navy Secretary, already 553 politicians have sought and received protection from the armed forces after being threatened by drug traffickers, attackers or enemies. Thus, insecurity has become a factor clouding a political situation that is otherwise orderly and predictable.

While all election unknowns will be cleared on Sunday, June 2, other questions, no less important, will remain in suspense. For example, If AMLO really retires from political life And whether or not — and in what way — it will have some kind of impact on the direction of future government. If Sheinbaum tries to put a personal stamp on his six-year term, or if it treads cautiously down the path of extreme continuity. Finally, Will Morena maintain the level of unity that the charismatic leadership of its historic leader has guaranteed until now?Or its eventual retirement will emphasize some increasingly obvious cleavage lines.