September 30, 2023

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According to economists, markets will view Guzmán’s resignation as highly uncertain and react negatively.

According to economists, markets will view Guzmán’s resignation as highly uncertain and react negatively.
The resignation of Economy Minister Martin Guzmán sees a weaker market. Photo: Reuters

The Economy Minister Martin Guzmán resignedSovereign bonds, which are trying to recover after crossing 2,500 country risk points and debt in pesos in the middle by a huge amount, open a new front full of uncertainty for a financial market that has already experienced turbulent days with a free dollar at record nominal values. I do not know.

Due to domestic policies and the macro environment, there is a widespread feeling among economists that the Guzmán cycle is complete, but it isThe scene did not improve with his departure, with political struggles heating up within the governing coalition, with no line in line for a successor. Those definitions — the name and the plan — are the keys to the next few hours.

“For now, it’s a holiday in the US on Monday, which gives it a bit more leverage, but not that much. If someone comes in to catch the market, it might be a little less shocking, but there’s not much a new administration can do,” the economist said. Miguel Giguel from Econviews to Infobae shortly after Guzmán announced he was stepping down.

“Entering now to do Rems Leniko’s dirty work, it’s not likely to go well” (Kiguel)

There are not many options for what you can do: few reserves, severe financial crisis, lack of funds, high inflation, high gap, the actions you take will be traumatic. If you go on the expansionary side and want to stimulate activity, you will collide with inflation, but if you adjust the equilibrium, you will collide with deflation and inflation.”, the former official added.

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“Entering now is entering to do [Jorge] “Rems Lenikov, dirty work, less likely to go well,” Giguel added.

Like Giguel, other experts now feel it is more relevant in the coming hours to replace the former minister by whose name and what his intentions are.

“Many believed that Guzmán’s cycle was over, and I see that too. The question now is how to fill the void rather than what was left in the past. Not only the person, but also the direction they decide to take”, the economist said. Daniel Marks For this medium.

“The opening of the markets is expected on Monday, at least,” predicted a former official of the presidency of Fernando de la Rua.

For now, for Marx, Guzmán’s resignation will almost certainly speed up the time to renegotiate the deal with the International Monetary Fund.

“Monday’s Markets Open At Least Expected” (Marx)

I think the contract was already under review before he left because the program was in trouble and it was difficult to sustain it. In that sense, it might be a fair oneMarx concluded.

For now, the coming days should be busy in the forex and credit markets. And worse.

“The question is who comes and what to do. But that too is an asymmetric situation. The replacement is someone from the extreme field of Kirchnerism, as the market has potentially bombastic names. But even if someone more rational comes, it is not a positive reality, because we still have to see what plan he presents and on what political edge to implement it,” he said. Gabriel Camano Ledesma advises.

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“That is why, Even a positive determination is highly complex in terms of uncertainty”, Kamano concluded.

The reading is widespread that innovation adds more uncertainty to the market.

“It’s an asymmetric situation. Because there are names that could be a bomb for the market (…) but even if someone more rational comes, it’s not a positive fact, because we still have to see what plan they propose.” (Caamaño)

“As there is a holiday in the US beyond Monday, the initial reaction will be negative, accentuating the current uncertain environment, waiting for a replacement and respective political signals,” he said. Gustavo BerFinancial analyst.

The initial reaction will almost certainly be negative in both bonds and stocks as well as financial dollars, as it underscores the current uncertain environment and may raise doubts about the definition of the alternative – and related political support. He concluded with a commitment to advance the convergence of economic imbalances agreed with the International Monetary Fund.

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