June 23, 2024

Brighton Journal

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How the “renewal” of the agreement with the IMF was promoted by Sergio Massa | Urgent action by the economy to reverse the social damage of the contract

How the “renewal” of the agreement with the IMF was promoted by Sergio Massa |  Urgent action by the economy to reverse the social damage of the contract

The confirmation this week that President Alberto Fernandez will not run for re-election laid the groundwork for Peronism to rearm against PASO, but political and economic stability does not depend on it alone. In the offices of Economy Minister Sergio Massa, they note the very short-term nature of the flow that ignited the blue dollar, but they promise that a general solution to the problem will be given inflation and a competitive edge. Through reform the mother of all conflicts: the deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF)..

Several weeks ago and with some secrecy, its technical teams described the “restructuring” of the entire agreement signed by former minister Martin Guzmán in the millionaire and leonine debt bought by Mauricio Macri. Massa, like Vice President Christina Kirchner, believes the current deal harms the goals of economic and social policy., especially after the outbreak of war in Ukraine and a drought leaving the country without dollars. “There’s no edge to anything”, they’re honest. The irony is that in the U.S., where Biden administration officials are negotiating political face and assurances for the changes, Massa is consistent in reading that the program is economically “not functioning as an anchor of stability.” Instead, it boomeranged in the middle of the election year.

What is “rebalancing”?

On the fifth floor of the Treasury building, a brand-new process with the IMF – which will close before the renegotiation in June – is described as a “renewal” of the deal, or, as US officials put it, “nothing off the table”. (Nothing is off the table). The meaning of this phrase used in bilateral meetings – according to what he learned Page I12-A signed contract will not be broken, but all matters that make noise will be discussed.

As happened with the stockpiling target, The menu to review is extensive and includes future offers, installments, dollar advances and popular reviews.. In short, the Treasury’s view is that without addressing this, it will be impossible to regulate the rate of inflation and mitigate the anti-measures on market stability, which is evidently happening as the elections approach.

The plot of how and why this situation was reached mixes the vagaries of national politics with the play of mutual geopolitical interests, but above all America. While it is true that Massa supported the plan signed by Guzmán in Congress, the details prior to that signing are used in his context to show that there were warnings from both Massa and Kirchnerism to negotiate better than what happened.

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In the midst of the pandemic, the minister now suggested not to fight his predecessor because of the surcharge (a fine Argentina paid to the International Monetary Fund for asking Macri for more money), and quarterly reviews of the plan said expanded facilities would be a headache for Argentina. Closer to Guzmán they offer a different view, but the rest make it clear that there were many suggestions to find the best moment to make the deal, but not on a razor’s edge. This strained the relationship between the president, Massa and the deputy, culminating in Guzmán’s departure.

President, Vice and Bullfighting

Those with direct knowledge of the fabric assure that Massa already had a decision similar to the one formalized by the President in a 7-minute video last Friday, at the time of his meeting with Alberto Fernandez in Olivos. That morning, in the presence of the President of the Central Bank, they discussed some of the points for renegotiating the agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Miguel Bess tried to remain inconspicuous at the meeting, but the president believed that the gestures of the photo between the two and Bess’s participation would add to the idea of ​​order. The minister’s relationship with the head of BCRA, as confirmed by both poles, has been rekindled by a positive one, beyond the obvious differences that already existed.

As always in his life, Massa still thinks that politics is a computer. This time is no exception, which is why the same afternoon he went to the Senate and chatted with Cecilia Moray, Maximo Kirchner and CFK, with whom he speaks almost daily, despite some dissenting opinions. There they talked about politics, what’s to come and how to solidify PASO. To be honest, Christina was the first to warn that the agreement with the IMF would be a condition, but To this must be added the unexpected factor of drought which cost the country 20 billion dollars overnight.. In one of those meetings, Masa was very logically consulted on how to navigate the short term when power factors and foreign exchange shortages put pressure on the government and the minister to force demonetisation.

To avoid it, Agri-exporters have already guaranteed Massa’s most trusted officials of more than 200 million export settlements this Monday. And a rhythm, if possible, almost daily. In fact, they are liquidating soybean oil and food production from beans imported from Paraguay, as national producers rebel against the 300-peso agricultural dollar and push to devalue it.

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Parallel to the dialogue with the United States, the minister has already guaranteed 5000 million dollars, which will be provided by the IDB, the Andean Development Corporation (CAF) and the World Bank, with the approval of the Biden administration. (WB). This week, the Treasury released a video of Juan Gonzalez, Biden’s right-hand man for the region. Political approval is expected for that. The US is a country that has a button panel that allows these money transfers. Meanwhile, this Monday, there will be a tentative response from the markets, which are reluctant to give the government a quiet gift with a run that has yet to show its teeth.

Textbook of Technology and Geopolitics

Renewing the agreement with the IMF has two tracks: technical and political. First, those responsible for its implementation were Deputy Minister Gabriel Rubinstein and Lavagnista Chief of Staff Leonardo Madgur. They both come in a dynamic of daily Zoom meetings with Kristalina Georgieva’s officials. The first contact came during Massa’s trip to Washington a few weeks ago. It is worth clarifying that the task is not easy because the valley is narrow: To rebalance without breaking the contractSomething that America doesn’t want because it goes against domestic norms and they don’t want to revise it, something that they understand that the next government has to do.

But the cream of the New Deal is cooked at the top level of political power. Massa has been associated for decades with the “school of Colombians” working in the Democratic Party. Don Restrepo, who was Barack Obama’s security adviser, was one of those who implemented the game. Restrepo, the son of a Colombian father and Spanish mother, heads a team that includes Cartagena-born Juan González and Honduran Ricardo Zunica, the regional undersecretary of state, Massa passed through the Dominican a few days ago. Republic. “They are very political and understand the needs of the country,” he describes Massa as referring to a group of negotiators on the US side.

Those who received the minister’s report on the impact of the drought on the economic figures and tried to make them understand that Argentina wants to comply with the agreement with the IMF, but under these conditions it is practically impossible without reviewing some points. “People are not ready to face such a complex situation and we have to rethink things,” he told them. Naturally, the other side of the deal, the US sees Lula da Silva’s Brazil as recently beginning to align itself with the Russia-China axis, and wants to guarantee a pole of stability for Westernism in the region. Nothing is free in this kind of relationship.

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“Yankee” eye on PASO

Argentine negotiators always talk about the “Peronist formula” in PASO as the only way to guarantee social peace and development with their counterparts in the United States. The issue under discussion at the moment is whether there will be an internal or consensus formula. Massa is close to considering a second option, with a candidate emerging from negotiations with CFK and the president. The theory is to strengthen space to avoid surprise results that hit the economy in STEP. Few reasons favor them, such as the frenzied runoff that takes place four months before the primary and the fact that no candidate is running. Americans, for their part, do not believe or believe, but they have some serious concerns about the future situation related to what they have just been told.

They are particularly concerned with the case of libertarian Javier Millay. They believe that if the polls are true, the country is in big trouble. They coordinate the process of Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil ending his alliance with Republican Donald Trump; And with the rise of El Salvador’s president, Nayeb Bugel, who is famous for ending the gang members of Las Marais and today is growing in domestic support to challenge the power of the United States.

The newspaper consulted various sources from the IMF and terminals in the US about what they see as a turning point. “Undefined and internal”, they describe, and repeat that you have to look at Miley and her possibilities. A coincidence with the local sphere: this week, at the Lao Lao Forum, at a meeting of principled CEOs brought together by Eduardo Elstein (IRSA) and Marcos Galperin (Mercato Libre), the business community began to fear Miley. Patricia Bullrich Tandem. The libertarian created water with his speeches and PRO’s leader tempered the verb to avoid the same rejection. In this highly complex current situation, the power factors are seen The far right is on its way to wrecking a ship in a world where queerness is not acknowledged.