Invasion of Ukraine at a turning point with rapid escalation of conflict

Less than a month later, war Ukraine The conflict suddenly turned from a fierce, mostly constant artillery battle that was expected to last through the winter Fast climbing and multi level has challenged the strategies of America, Ukraine Y Russia.

Initiation by Russia of Massive attacks on civilian infrastructure on Monday In a dozen Ukrainian cities far from the front lines, it caused shock and outrage. Attacks, this is the Secretary of State Anthony Blinken described as “Missiles in waves“, feet “Children’s playgrounds and public parks”, at least 14 people died and nearly 100 were injured, and electricity and water were cut off in much of the country.

“By launching missile attacks against civilians sleeping in their homes or pouncing on school-going children, Russia is once again proving to be a terrorist state that must be deterred in a strong way.”, said the Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Nations. Sergiy KyslytsyaAt the start of a General Assembly session scheduled before the attack, to encourage universal condemnation Moscow.

The attacks are the latest in a series of head-spinning events — from Ukrainian victories on the ground to threats from the Russian president, Vladimir PutinThe use of nuclear weapons – this has changed the nature and pace of warfare in recent weeks, and raised questions about it. America And its partners should move beyond the idea of ​​helping Ukraine defend itself and instead strongly facilitate a Ukrainian victory.

So far, the delivery effort America It is deliberate and procedural about the types of weapons it deploys and the speed at which it does so, without undermining its primary priority of avoiding direct conflict between them. Russia Y West. The strategy is likely to be on the agenda of the leaders’ emergency meeting G7 Tuesday and a meeting of defense ministers NATO will be held later.

U.S. officials continue to express alarm over the worst possible move. “Turning points in battle are often danger pointsA senior executive said. Biden, one of several U.S. and Ukrainian officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss political discussions. “You can’t predict what’s around the corner”.

Russian leaders have cited their own breakthrough. Viktor BondarevThe head of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Upper House of the Russian Parliament wrote in a post telegram Attacks begin on Monday”A new phase” rather than The Kremlin calling him”Special Military Operations“Inside UkraineMore “resolved” actions are to come.

PutinIn a speech to his security team early Monday, he said the attacks were retaliation for what he called.Terrorism” including the weekend bombing of a Ukrainian, strategic bridge CrimeaIt was an important logistical route for the Russian occupation forces in the south Ukraine.

The destruction of the bridge claimed responsibility only indirectly UkraineIt came after a series of encouraging Ukrainian developments Kiev and his Western supporters. In a surprise Counter attack Ukrainian forces have recaptured more than 1,000 square miles of territory since early September. Russia Further progress was made in the north-east, followed by the south.

The Ukrainian victorieswith standard statements Russian soldiers were poorly armed and with low morale A fugitive from the attack, abandoning the team and leaving the dead behind, sparked public criticism of waging war from within. RussiaEven by some senior advisors Putin. In a few days, Putin He called for a military mobilization of up to 300,000 civilians to bolster his weakened forces. Humiliation was compounded by a chaotic deployment and the flight of hundreds of thousands of military-age men across neighboring borders.

Widely interpreted as a reference to nuclear weapons, Putin threatened to useAll routes are available“To defend the occupied territory Russia, even as he moved to unify the four Ukrainian regions. “I want to remind you that our country also has various means of destruction … And when the territorial integrity of our country is threatened, we will certainly use all the means at our disposal to protect Russia and our people.“, he said on September 21. “This is not a Dim”.

Mobilization and nuclear threats, a senior administration official said, “Signs of two things: Putin knows how bad he is doing. . . . This was previously questionable”. “Two, This is definitely a sign that he is doubling down. We are not at the final stage, we are not close to negotiations. Those facts will not comfort anyone,” the official said.

Rose KottemollerFormer State Department Senior Official and Former Under Secretary for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation Affairs NATOsaid: “The use of nuclear weapons is a dead end. Shows the ultimate failure of the policy [de Putin] If he is somehow cornered,” he said. Kottemoller. “This is the final roll of the dice,” they think, “somehow… the whole world will panic, and all their supporters will force the Ukrainians to sue for peace…” I don’t see that happening.”

“I think we should take these threats very, very seriously.“, said.

with Monday attacks Ukraine, Putin It was clearly trying to regain the initiative, but reinforce the image of a unified strategy and leadership. In his statements Security Council, picked up by Russian media, said the missile attack was designed and recommended by the Ministry of Defense in accordance with its “Russian General Staff plan.” He specifically mentioned the role of the Defense Minister. Sergei ShoiguHis absence from public opinion in recent days has led to speculation of his ouster.

For its part, Ukraine It has long combined its overwhelming gratitude for Western arms aid with its need for more and more sophisticated goods. The US and its allies are demanding tanks to enter the disputed territory, which they are reluctant to send. This week, Kiev It gave new urgency to sophisticated air defense systems.

A Ukrainian official, referring to a list provided by the military high command, said Ukraine’s priority items included a surface-to-air missile system. The patriotMissiles MIM-23 FalconAttack drones and Nasams (National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems), as well as Israeli air defense systems.

Requests Ukraine A new vibrancy is seen in some sectors Washington In the wake of Monday’s attacks, top Democrats, particularly President Joe Biden, have demanded that the distribution be moved quickly. Ukraine. “I am appalled by Russia’s brutal and desperate expansion against civilian infrastructure throughout Ukraine, including Kyiv.”, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, a Democrat, said in a statement. Robert Menendez. “I pledge to use all means at my disposal to expedite support to the people of Ukraine and starve Russia’s war machine.”

Deputy Elizabeth Slatkin (Democrat of Michigan), former high official INC And this pentagon, tweeted that the need for air defense was “urgent given the scale of these attacks.” Providing these systems is a defensive measure – not an expansionist one – and our European friends must step up with us to provide the Ukrainians with what they need.

However, there is no indication at first that the administration wants to change the relatively lengthy approval process that determines which weapons go where. Ukraine, then when The process includes an analysis AmericaBased on his own reports of battlefield conditions, what Ukraine A US defense official said it was necessary condition joinedY”Second, do we have the material?“

“Third, do they already know how to use it? If not, what is the plan to train them? Fourth, how are you going to maintain the product? Put it in the field? keep Fix it? Spare parts? . . . If we can’t do it, who among our allies and partners can?” the defense official said.

Once those questions are answered, the application and recommendation will be reviewed for comments and concerns from other government departments before a decision is made. White HouseWhere Biden to make the final decision.

Once the decision is made, if the equipment is taken from safety stock, it will be delivered within a few days. America, months if its use and maintenance required extensive training, or years if some products had to be manufactured. For example, Biden Approved export of Air Defense System Nasams in early summer, and defense officials have said two will be deployed this fall, once systems are ready and training is complete.

The other six Nasamsdeclared pentagon At the end of August, they take years to develop. systems The patriot are already in short supply NATO and often travel with their own American or American operational groups. NATOThe West is unlikely to make a commitment.

IsraelThe prime minister on Monday condemned Russia for the first time for the missile strikes, which have complicated relations of their own. Moscow.

“We certainly understand that we are at a potential tipping point in the war on many levels.A senior executive said. Biden. “That thought is embedded [nuestra] decision making. . . . Ukraine has certainly been better and more aggressive lately, too Putin is feeling the heat on the battlefield, both domestically and abroad. No doubt these are different conditions.

“But we believe these changes on the battlefield and in Russia have further validated our decision-making process,” the official said.

(C) Washington Post.-

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