October 3, 2023

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Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska has estimated that the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine will begin in 18 months.

Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska has estimated that the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine will begin in 18 months.
FILE PHOTO: Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska attends the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 17, 2022 in St. Petersburg, Russia. REUTERS/Maxim Shemetov/File Photo

Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska, the target of international sanctions for the war in Ukraine, assesses in an interview. EFE A period of 18 months to see a de-escalation of the conflictIt says it could be triggered by a troop withdrawal or a possible regime change.

Deripaska estimated “May 2025” as a date for a possible end to the conflict, with the intensity decreasing at the beginning of that year. While the veteran on the international sanctions list avoided directly specifying his reasons, he suggested troop dispersal as one of the main reasons for the cooling, though he did not name either side.

“There will no longer be soldiers willing to die for a war,” adding “perhaps regime change,” making it clear he was referring to Ukraine.

The oligarchy has been characterized as the winner of the “aluminum war” in Russia, and has been pointed to by the West as one of Moscow’s favourites.He has made several considerations that distance him from the Kremlin, including the catastrophic effects of the conflict, liquidity problems and the government’s pressure on foreign investment.

Deripaska’s criticism, which initially called the war “madness”, caused alarm as it revealed the strain of Russia’s industrial climate. Financial timeThe seizure of a hotel complex coincided with the Kremlin’s “quiet” warning.

“Of course, the conflict is not permanent and must be stopped. A year ago there was a chance, but as I said, many politicians on both sides have invested much of their political capital in the desired end of the war, and they still have public support across their national borders,” he said. said.

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Atypical critics of the aluminum tycoon are now predicting the collapse of the Russian economy. However, a year and a half after the conflict, reality shows, in his opinion, the retrogression and ineffectiveness of sanctions.

FILE PHOTO: Ukrainian soldiers from the 108th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade fire small multiple-launch rocket systems at Russian troops near a front line in Ukraine’s Zaporozhye region amid Russia’s offensive on Ukraine. August 19, 2023. REUTERS/Viacheslav Ratynskyi/File

“I think the conflict will be resolved anyway in May 2025 in a year or 2 years,” he asserted.

But “for Russia, as I said, it’s a difficult time,” he admits, adding that there is Western attention to the industrial sector, which has practically been canceled with sanctions. The Russian economy is very complex, with a large state presenceThe basic element of the Russian industrial group is something that is always worried.

“In my opinion, with the rapid withdrawal of Western companies, the Russian economy will fall into a very deep process. It was really a small adjustment, which took three quarters of time,” he explained.

Now Russia is building new logistics for Latin America, Asia, Africa and Southeast Asia.It is a major Russian destination for both exports and imports.

For the Russian businessman, Russia is a unique platform in terms of knowledge, its resources and unique position, “What you call a friendly country, we call it a country ready to cooperate and prosper.” , asserts. To illustrate the formula allows Moscow some stability despite disruptions.

“We have a lot of shocks, but the resilience of private companies shows that Russia is capable of overcoming these challenges,” he said.

02/28/2022 Russian Ruble Banknotes International Economy Sven Hoppe/dpa

“No,” Deripaska replies.

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“As I said, I somewhat overestimated how severe the global impact of an embargo would be and how a Western attempt to destabilize the Russian economy would be,” he said, retracting one of his more alarming predictions.

Once the richest man in Russia, The impact will be severe and the world will need 5 to 7 years to adapt to a new reality.

“Less than two years is actually necessary and the adjustment is already visible,” he added.

Since the war in Ukraine a year and a half ago, tough economic sanctions on the Kremlin and its key industries, and restrictions on Russian investment in several countries, Moscow has deepened the deficit as it ramps up its defense spending.

Even so, he concluded, the impact of sanctions has “failed, and now it is like an attempt to cut off the tail of a snake that has already progressed”.

(with information from EFE)

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