June 20, 2024

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The numbers Sergio Massa presented to Congress are far from the private sector’s projections

The numbers Sergio Massa presented to Congress are far from the private sector’s projections

Serge Massa He faces a challenge that his predecessor Martin Guzmán could not successfully tackle. He said Thursday night and before the House of Representatives, The Budget 2023, the roadmap was rejected last year due to objections from the opposition, which accused the government of projections that were far from reality, increasing costs and the tax burden. This time, Massa assured that the document contained “realistic” numbers. however, They are already far from what they estimate the private sector will contribute to the economy in 2023.

The government agreed with that bill Inflation will approach 95% this year A figure similar to that estimated in the central bank’s latest Market Expectations Report (REM) prepared by private consultants. However, Masa expects the narrowing of the fiscal deficit and the monetary issue to moderate price increases next year. For this reason, he estimates that inflation will end by 2023 60%

In contrast, the REM average resulted 85.2% And on a monthly basis, it adds additional percentage points to the expected consumer price index, making its expectations for the coming year worse. Between the July report and the August report, it was assessed 8.4 additional points to inflation in 2023.

Massa reiterated through this document, pIt will seek to respect the fiscal deficit target agreed with the International Monetary Fund. That means, in current pesos, an adjustment of close to $700,000 million 1.9% of GDP Next year. This figure is achieved with a Reviewing corporate tax incentives, “Fight” against tax evasion and money laundering. In addition, the costs of transfers and subsidies to public institutions are estimated to be lower.

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The government predicts that there will be a fiscal deficit next year $3743 billionAccording to REM estimates it will be close $3,408 billion. At first glance, Massa’s prognosis seems more pessimistic than that of the private sector, but according to industry sources, this is because For private consultants, the GDP is lower than what was assumed by the government. Therefore, the deficit estimate is lower, but it will be higher than the 1.9% target for 2023.

For example, explained Claudio Caprarulo from Analytica Nation Who expects Primary Fiscal Deficit 2.4%, 0.5 percentage points above the target with the IMF.

Martin’s ratings Guzman were around a development 3% to 3.5% For next year. Massa Lowering expectations reflected an increase in GDP two%. However, it continues to be far from estimated Private consultants, which is around 0.5%, on average. Between July and August, REM lowered its forecast for this variable: the consensus of opinion 30 days ago was estimated at 1%.

Because it is expected A slowdown at the functional level Later this year. It is expected to contract by 1.4% (without seasonality) in the third quarter of 2022. The forecast for the fourth quarter of 2022 showed an expectation -1.0% Without seasonality (a 0.7% contraction was expected a month ago).

He said the government will allow it The decline of the dollar with inflation. For months, the devaluation of the official exchange rate has accelerated, but it is still well below general inflation. The economic group will devalue the dollar by about one 62%That means above inflation.

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However, analysts expect it to exceed that percentage. While Massa expects a dollar to hit $269 by the end of next year (average $219), REM averaged $301.42. It means increase 73.16% (December vs. December) in private sector valuation.

Official estimates are more optimistic than private estimates of the trade surplus. Even if the government admits it Imports will increase over the next three years (US$12,347 million in 2023; US$12,198 million in 2024; and US$9,358 million in 2025).

At the same time, compared to this year, the presented plan assumes that the reduction of energy imports will improve the result, estimated at 7,751 million USD.