February 27, 2024

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The US and Iran are approaching the brink of war

The US and Iran are approaching the brink of war
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks at the IRGC Space Force Exhibition in Tehran, Iran, November 19, 2023 (Reuters)

More than 100 days Hamas attacked Israel On 7th October, the President Joe Biden Tried to help Israel To win his battle Loop And prevent the conflict from turning into a regional war Iran and his associates. It is very difficult”Anti mold“In Iran And Israel And America They carry out increasingly deadly attacks on each other, including murders.

Iran's Allies Iraq And Syria They have launched about 140 rocket and drone strikes against US troops since the start of the war. Loop. Perhaps a more intense barrage on January 20”Many ballistic missiles and rockets” was shot at the base Al Assadin the west IraqAccording to him Central Command America. According to reports, air defense batteries The patriot They intercepted most of the missiles, but few reached the base, causing wounds or injuries to an unknown number of Americans and Iraqis. Until now, America It retaliated against its local representatives. Biden It now faces increasing pressure to take strong action against Iran. It's a dilemma: do nothing and America appear weak; Retaliate and the president risks a new war in an election year.

In YemenMeanwhile, America Another Iranian ally has launched a seventh strike against Houthi militias that control much of the country in an effort to halt missile strikes against ships passing through the strait. Bab al-Mandab. The Houthis say they are sailing towards the ships, supporting the Palestinians Israel or Western warships. Although there are reports that he is getting help from members, his motive is accidental Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran (IRGC), Praetorian guard of clerical regime to identify ships and handle weapons.

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own Biden Admits US strikes won't stop Houthis however, The Washington Post Management reports Biden is drawing up plans for a “sustained military campaign”. Yemen Despite the skepticism of some officials.

In LebanonMeanwhile, the oldest and most powerful regional ally Iran, HezbollahShiite militias and a political party have been exchanging gunfire with Israeli forces. expressed his support to HamasBut did not wage war against Israel. Administration Biden contributed to prevention Israel A pre-emptive attack should be made against Hezbollah Immediately after the October 7 attacks. But still Israel He threatens to act Lebanon If diplomacy fails to convince the forces Hezbollah Stop shooting and move away from the border area.

America And Iran Thus they are playing a dangerous game in balance. Iran It helped its allies along the “Axis of Resistance” to organize attacks aimed at weakening IsraelMove on America And disparage Arab countries that have made (or intend to make) peace Israel. America, for its part, has taken a limited response. Both avoided direct confrontation. But the equilibrium may not be maintained.

As a start, Israel not waging a secret war against Iran and its allies, with apparent conflicts with Hamas And Hezbollah. In late December, an Israeli airstrike killed an Iranian commander Damascus. After a week, Saleh al-Arurisenior officer HamasHe was killed in an attack on the fort of Hezbollah South of Beirut. On January 20, another rocket attack Damascus Killed five members IRGCAmong them Hojatallah OmidwarSyria's intelligence chief Quds ForceForeign Operations Division IRGC. On January 4th, America were killed Mushtaq al-ZawariChairman Haraqat al-NujabaA group involved in attacks against US forces carried out a drone attack on its headquarters Baghdad.

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Meanwhile, a series of terrorist attacks have shaken the Iranian regime. Among them, the double suicide attack was claimed by the jihadist group Islamic StateAbout 100 people died near the cemetery Qasim SulaimaniA senior Iranian general was assassinated America In 2020; And at least 11 police officers were killed in the tense Eastern Province Balochistan In the hands of the Baluch group Pakistan, Jaish al-Adl.

Supreme Leader of IranAyatollah Ali KhameneiIt has called for training of Iranian forces.Strategic patience”. But still Ali Wasof International Crisis GroupThe Iranian regime now considers it “restored deterrence” and has taken matters into its own hands.

Last week it launched missiles against three neighboring countries: against terrorist targets Syria And Pakistanand against an Israeli spy base Kurdistan Iraq. (Attack Pakistan called for a retaliatory missile strike against Iran; Now both countries seem to have pulled back from the brink). “Iranians face danger“, it says vaez. “You have to change your defensiveness. But at the same time there is a perception that Israel is setting a trap to justify prolonging the war or draw the US into it.”.

Regarding administration Biden, officials insist they don't want a regional war. In 2020, Pioneer Biden, Donald TrumpHe ordered to kill Sulaimani In response to attacks by pro-Iranian militias against US forces. It created a missile attack against Iran Al Assad Like the recent barrage (which Trump and did not respond).

Biden Be cautious. He didn't want to be dragged into a war Middle East at a time America Already at its capacity support limit Ukraine In his battle against Russia And try to avoid another con China By Taiwan. Besides, Biden He is running for re-election this year.

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In Iraq And Syria, US forces respond much less than they are attacked. Likewise, in Yemen, America Initially limited to shooting down threatening missiles and drones Israel or to passing ships, gave warnings and received a resolution of support UN Before attacking the Houthis directly.

Management knows there is an intractable problem.“, it says Aaron David Miller, from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a think tank in Washington, DC. “You can only try to manage it”.

The great belief that Biden matter Israel Win soon or at least end your war Loop, thus reducing the anger across the region. But still Israel No suffocation Hamas Nor is he retrieving his hostages and showing few signs of being ready to stop. The number of Palestinians exceeds 25,000. Some blame it Israel Genocide. Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahuflatly rejects the invitation Biden to a future Palestinian state.

when Biden Trying to keep up with the beat Middle East, Miller This confirms that it could be an accident or a terrorist attack from a regional war. “If this continues, and one of these attacks kills a significant number of Americans, the administration will have no choice but to attack the IRGC.”.

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