Dow futures rose slightly in extended trading, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally reversed lower on Wednesday after the Fed posted a 5.1% gain as Fed Chair Jerome Powell called for “significantly more evidence” that inflation is under control.
But stocks pared losses in contrasting measures as investors also reflect on Powell’s other comments and hope for rate hikes to begin in 2023. Tesla (TSLA) in reaching the lowest levels of the bear market amid concerns about the demand for electric vehicles. apple (AAPL) fell below the 50-day moving average.
But solar stocks have been strong, with the Invesco Solar ETF (tan) flashing a buying opportunity, eg Enphase energy (ENPH), SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG), First Solar (FSLR) And the Matrix techniques (I see) Everything rose.
Fed rate hike, peak rate
The central bank raised the federal funds rate by 50 basis points, to 4.25%-4.5% on Wednesday afternoon, as expected. But policy makers, in the new quarterly forecast, now, too See peak rate of 5.1%Up from 4.6% at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. Fed Chair Powell has stated in recent weeks that the peak rate is likely to head higher. But 5.1% was higher than market expectations, especially after Tuesday’s relatively weak inflation report.
Fed President Paul Hokisch, Deutsch
The full effects of this year’s rate hike are yet to be felt, “but we have more to do,” said Powell, who was speaking shortly after the Fed’s meeting announcement and outlook. The Fed chief noted a “welcome decline” in price gains in the last two CPI reports, but said policymakers needed “significantly more evidence.” Have confidence that inflation is on a sustainable downward path.”
Powell did not rule out further stepping down in raising rates to just a quarter of a point in February. He stressed the importance of determining where the federal funds rate peaks and how long it stays high. Notably, Powell does not see any rate cuts in 2023.
But he also said, “Our policy is to get to a very good place now.”
Markets are putting a 73% chance of a quarter-point rate hike, to a range of 4.5%-4.75%, up from 60% on Tuesday. Notably, investors expect another quarter-point rally in late March, but now see a good chance of not moving at all.
The Fed continues to see a slowdown in growth in 2023, not an actual recession.
The major indices, which all rose modestly with the Fed meeting announcement and Powell’s speech, turned lower in choppy trading. For the second consecutive session, the S&P 500 moved above the 200-day moving average but closed below that key level.
Investors should be careful about adding exposure in the current market, with indices volatile and near key levels.
Dow jones futures today
Dow futures rose 0.1% against fair value. S&P 500 futures rose 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.15%.
Stock market rise
The stock market rallied ahead of the Fed meeting announcement, then reversed lower in a choppy move the rest of the session.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4% on Wednesday Stock market trading. The S&P 500 lost 0.6%. The Nasdaq Composite lost 0.8%. Small-cap Russell 2000 gave up 0.7%.
Apple stock fell 1.55% to 143.21, again below its 50-day moving average.
US crude oil prices rose 2.5 percent to $77.28 a barrel.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed flat at 3.5%.
between the The best mutual fundsThe Innovator IBD 50 ETF (fifty(down 0.4%, while the Innovator IBD Breakout Opportunities ETF)fit) decreased by 0.1%. iShares Expanded Technology and Software ETF (IGV) lost 0.2%. VanEck Vectors Semiconductor Corporation (SMH) decreased by 1.7%.
SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) decreased by 0.9%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) sank 0.5%. Energy Defined Fund SPDR ETF (xle(Down 0.6% and Financial Select SPDR ETF)XLF) 1.25%. SPDR Health Care Sector Selection Fund (XLV) increased by 0.2%.
The Invesco Solar ETF rose 1.8% to 82.61 on Wednesday. The TAN ETF has a buy point of 84.28 cups with the handle, but investors could have gotten in early from the 21-day moving average.
Right now, solar stocks are generally moving higher together, so TAN is a good way to play up the sector’s upside with less risk to individual stocks.
Enphase Energy, First Solar, and SEDG stocks are the three largest constituents, accounting for nearly a third of TAN’s weight.
ENPH stock has now extended slightly from its buy point, according to MarketSmith analysis. The SEDG stock has also been extended from the grip insert. FSLR stock is rebounding from the 10-week line, providing a new buying opportunity.
Array Technologies is also a component of TAN. ARRY stock jumped 8.3% to 23.55, just below the 23.60 buy point cup with handle. But the shares are 12.7% higher than the 21-day line and 26% higher than the 50-day line, which makes buying ARRY shares riskier, especially in the current market.
TSLA stock fell 2.6% to 156.80 on Wednesday. Shares are now down 12.4% for the week, extending to two-year lows. Tesla stock peaked at 414.46 in November 2021.
On Wednesday, Goldman Sachs lowered its target for TSLA’s share price and lowered its forecast for Tesla’s fourth-quarter deliveries. Morgan Stanley sees Tesla stock as a top pick for 2023, but warns that “Brakes squeak on demand on electric vehicles” Inclusive.
If I covered the TSLA and just looked at the chart, it would just go away.
Market rally analysis
The past two days are a great example of not being the news, but rather the market’s reaction to the news.
On Tuesday, a cooler-than-expected CPI inflation report sent stocks off the open, but they quickly pared gains.
On Wednesday afternoon, the central bank raised its forecast for the Fed’s highest rate more than expected. Fed Chair Powell made it clear that inflation needs to fall much more, although he also offered more pessimistic signals. The major indices were sold off hard, but then pared losses, briefly turning positive before fading again.
The S&P 500, above its 200-day line for the second consecutive session, failed to close above that key level, this time reversing lower. But it found support at the 21-day line, which closes the gap with the 200-day mark.
Dow Jones and Nasdaq also successfully tested their 21-day lines. The Russell 2000, which has become a lagging indicator, has pulled back towards the 50-day line.
Despite the disappointment since Tuesday’s opening highs, all major indices are up about 1.6% for the week, while the Russell 2000 is up 1%.
The stock market often has a second day reaction to Fed meetings, especially with so much volatility.
What are you doing now
A stock market rally gives no reason to add exposure. Previously, indices would at least have a solid session to attract investors, then cut them off with steady losses over the next several sessions.
But for now, the major indices are unable to make gains.
If you are buying aggressively, there is a good chance that you will buy outright at the highest price in the near term. If you buy at weakness, you could be jumping on a sinking ship.
It is best to wait for the major indices to show signs of a sustained rally in the market. That would include the S&P 500 crossing the 200-day line, and then all major indexes breaking above their December 1 highs. Even in this positive scenario, investors should add exposure carefully.
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