November 28, 2022

Brighton Journal

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What if Putin did not miscalculate?

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a military parade in Moscow on May 9, 2021. Analysts believe that their real purpose is to capture the Ukrainian East (Reuters).

Is the general opinion Vladimir Putin Made a catastrophic miscalculation.

He thought that Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his troops. They did not. He thought he would soon overthrow the government Volodymyr Zhelensky. He is not. என்று எண்ணினான் Splitting NATO. He united her. He thought he was protecting his economy against sanctions. It destroyed her. He thought the Chinese would help him. They bet themselves. He thought that his modernized army would mincemeat the Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainians mincemeat it at least at some point.

Putin’s miscalculations raise questions about his strategic judgment and mood. If there is anyone, who can advise you? Have you lost touch with reality? Are you unwell? Mentally? Condoleezza rice Warns: He does not control his emotions. Something is wrong”. Russian sieges Like Mariupol And Kharkiv Two densely populated Russian cities Putin Says there will be “Publishes“Ukrainian repression – similar to what the Nazis did WarsawAnd what belongs Putin Done Grozny.

Many analysts have compared Putin With a corner rat, now he is very dangerous because he does not control the events. They want to provide you with a safe way out of the dilemma you are supposed to have created for yourself. So almost universal contempt accumulated Joe Biden Say in Poland: “By God, this man cannot be in constant power”.

Conventional wisdom is absolutely credible. This is the advantage of justifying the Western strategy of supporting Ukraine defensively.. And it goes on to conclude that this is the best result Putin Finds some way to save face: more Ukrainian territory, Ukrainian promise of neutrality, removal of some barriers.

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But what if conventional wisdom is wrong? What if Western nations play Putin’s game again?

A powerful reminder of the possibility is recommended Carlotta CallFrom The TimesFrom his experience covering the siege Russia To do GroznyDuring the first Chechen war in the mid-1990s. In the early stages of the war, motivated Chechen fighters annihilated the Russian Armored Regiment and stunned Moscow. The Russians reunited and destroyed Grozny From a distance, using artillery and aircraft.

Russia Runs with the same blake today. As Western military analysts argue Putin Cannot be defeated militarily UkraineWhat they really mean is that you can’t win fairly. Since when has Putin been playing fair?

There is a next stage in Putin’s sports book, which Chechens are well aware of“, Writes Gallbladder. “Once Russian troops gained control of Chechnya, they further suppressed dissent by arresting and filtering camps and empowering local guards and collaborators.”.

Let’s keep that for a moment Putin Never intended to win everything UkraineFrom the beginning, their real targets were the energy resources of the East UkraineIt has the second largest known natural gas reserve Europe (Later Norway)

If you combine this with previous regional seizures Russia On Crimea (Which has the largest marine energy reserves) and the Eastern Provinces Luhansk And Donetsk (A large shale gas part of the violin), as well as betting Putin Control most or all of the beach UkraineIt is clear the form of ambitions Putin. He is less interested in reuniting the Russian-speaking world than defending Russia’s energy dominance..

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In the guise of an invasion, Putin is carrying out a major robberySaid the Canadian energy expert David Knight Leg. As for the rest Ukraine Terrain, which is likely to become a welfare case WestThis will help pay for refugee resettlement fees Ukraine In new homes out of Russian control. Over time, such a figure Victor Orban Can become president UkraineReflects the strong style of politics Putin You like your neighbors.

If this analysis is correct, then Putin does not appear to be a miscalculated loser..

It also reflects their strategy of targeting the public. Instead of a way to compensate for the inability of Russian troops, mass killings of civilians are under great pressure. Zhelensky The same things must be accepted Putin Requested at all times: Regional concessions and Ukrainian neutrality. The West is also looking for any opportunity to intensify, especially when we firmly believe a Putin The mentally ill are ready to use nuclear weapons.

Inside RussiaThe war has already served political purposes Putin. Many members of the professional middle class – those who are most sympathetic to the dissidents Alexei Navalny– Self-deported. Remnants of the free press are covered, probably forever. To the extent that the Russian military exposes itself, there is more to a well-guided refinement from above than a broad revolution from below. New energy resources Russia They can help her get rid of obstacles.

Performance This alternative analysis Putin May be wrong. On the other hand, in war, politics, and life, it is always wise to treat the enemy like a cunning fox, not like a madman.

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(C) The New York Times.-

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