The fact that Javier Mili became the candidate with the most votes in the primaries is considered a “black swan” that the market did not expect. For this reason, before the formal opening of the markets, the first reactions of investors left the PASO results Front Market: Sovereign bonds fell 12%.
On New York screens, Bonds of the last credit exchange are performing with a sharp fall in dollars. After 8:30 am, global headlines dipped between 11.52% (GD30) and 12.60% (GD46).
“In the short-term, uncertainty about Miley’s economic plan and ‘dollarization’ is favorable to the pegged dollar. Apart from the fact that the coverage is due to the uncertainty of ‘what’s to come’. The central bank (BCRA) may seek to intervene to control dollar parity, sell dollar futures and even raise interest rates. For bonds, in principle, the trend is down due to uncertainty and surprise in the market. First you have to digest the surprise. The fall was 12%, but not close to another Monday after PASO 2019,” said FMyA’s economist Fernando Marul.
However, the primary elections, the analyst added They may have a positive impact on the market in the medium term. Although there is uncertainty until October, it is waiting to know which candidates will fight ballot, The poor performance of the ruling party and the so-called “Miley Plan” should be “agile” for bonds. He concluded that “bonds should be worth US$60, not US$40, to consolidate fiscal adjustment, lower taxes, lower public spending and the exchange rate.”
News in development.
“Introvert. Thinker. Problem solver. Evil beer specialist. Prone to fits of apathy. Social media expert. Award-winning food fanatic.”